MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 20, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Friday offers a great slate of baseball betting opportunities, and we’ll look at a National League game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals. Phillies are locked in a heated battle with the Atlanta Braves for the NL East crown, while Washington is well off the pace. Atlanta is in Chicago for a three game series against the Cubs, and Philadelphia has their next three games against the lowly Nationals.

Washington Nationals (Jason Marquis) at Philadelphia Phillies (Roy Halladay)
August 20, 2010 4:05 PM Pacific

This may be the biggest mismatch of the year in Major League Baseball. Not only does the Philadelphia Phillies hold the statistical edge in almost every significant category over the Washington Nationals, they also have every situational factor working in their favor as well. Of course it’s not like I’m the only person who knows this, which is why Philly is a hefty -375 favorite here. Anyway, let’s review the matchup and then take a look at a way that I think we can get involved at a much more reasonable price.

We’ll start with the Phillies who have rounded into form at the right time of the year. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 despite a Thursday loss to San Francisco (which didn’t hurt them as Atlanta also lost) and remain 2.5 games behind the Braves in the NL East race. Philadelphia has been playing great ball throughout the month of August (13-4 +8.6 units) but the Braves have responded in kind and have also won 7 of their last 10 games. Phillies have been dominant at home (38-20) and against right handed starters (51-35).

Washington is a made to order opponent for Philadelphia. They’ve struggled on the road (21-42 -9.9 units) and against right handed pitchers (39-50 -3.6 units) . They’re 6-11 in the month of August and have lost 7 of their last 10. Although they’ve held their own against Philadelphia so far this year winning 4 of 9 games, over the past three years they’ve been destroyed in the Phillies ballpark losing 15 of 21.

Were that not enough, this pitching matchup couldn’t get any uglier. Roy Halladay is one of the best in the business with a 2.24 ERA and a 2.08 mark at home where the Phillies have won 9 of his 13 starts. Jason Marquis, on the other hand, enters with a brutal 14.33 ERA and has lost all 5 starts this year. In his last three starts, he hasn’t made it out of the 4^th inning with a 15.75 ERA and an average of 2.7 innings per start. He’s started twice against Philadelphia this year with the Phillies winning both.

Obviously we don’t have any interest in laying the -375, nor the run line price of -1’ -175. We will, however, take a shot on this game going Over the total. Marquis has gone Over in every start this year and the Phillies have been giving Halladay good run support. At home when the total is 8 or 8’ the Phillies have gone Over in 11 of 14 spots. Most significantly, perhaps, all 9 of the head to head meetings between Philadelphia and Washington this year have gone Over the total. Phillies averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 6 home games—and those were against much better pitching staffs (Los Angeles and San Francisco). They should tee off on the Nats and Marquis and could beat this total on their own.

Bet Washington/Philadelphia Over 8 +100