MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland A’s

Added on Aug 18, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More daytime baseball action, this time in the American League as the Oakland A’s host the Toronto Blue Jays. A’s are in third place in the AL West, one game back of second place Los Angeles and 9 behind first place Texas. Jays are 10 games out of first place in the brutally competitive AL East. While both teams are realistically out of the playoff hunt, we really like the situational matchup in today’s game.

Toronto Blue Jays (Rzepczynski) at Oakland A’s (Gonzalez)
August 18, 2010—12:35 PM Pacific

One very effective baseball betting strategy is to identify good pitchers before the public and linesmakers catch on. For every Steven Strasburg there’s always a half dozen or more pitchers on the road to an All Star level career but still ‘under the radar’ to the casual fan. Don’t get us wrong—we’re huge fans of Strasburg and he’s got all of the tools to be a superstar. The problem is that he’s already overpriced less than a full season into his Major League career. Strasburg is already a -180 or better favorite on a bad Washington team every time he takes the mound at home, and these prices aren’t going to get better as his career progresses.

This matchup, however, features Oakland’s very talented Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez is 24 but looks even younger but has shown signs of becoming an All Star level talent. In his first full Major League season Gonzalez has a 3.49 ERA and has been even better at home with a 2.94 ERA, with Oakland winning 7 of his 11 starts on their own field. Despite a 1-2 record in his last three games he’s pitched well with a 2.57 ERA in that stretch. The two losses were on the road, and Gonazalez was spectacular in his last home start where he pitched 7 innings of 4 hit shutout baseball against the hard hitting Texas Rangers.

In all fairness, neither team is great against left handed pitching but we think Gonzalez is a cut above Marc Rzepczynski in terms of talent. Toronto is 10-16 -5.3 units against southpaws this year and hitting a woeful .214 with 3.2 runs per game against lefties. Oakland’s run output against LHP is only 0.3 runs per game less than their overall average, while Toronto’s is 1.5 per game less. That’s a problem against a very promising young pitcher who has the skills to dominate opponents and particularly one that struggles against southpaws to begin with. The Jays managed only 3 hits against Oakland lefty Dallas Braden in a 6-2 loss last night, and it could be more of the same here.

Bet Oakland (Gonzalez) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Rzepczynski)

Make sure to check out our other baseball betting free pick in Wednesday daytime baseball action