MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

Added on Aug 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Monday in the National League as the Chicago Cubs hit the road for a three game series against the Washington Nationals. The Cubs are a mess at the moment and are reeling from the sudden retirement of manager Lou Piniella. The Nationals aren’t in much better shape, and are awaiting the results of a MRI report on rookie pitching phenom Steven Strasburg.

Chicago Cubs (Coleman) at Washington Nationals (Hernandez)
August 23, 2010—4:05 PM Pacific

With September callups on the horizon which usually results in spirited play from promising prospects on losing teams, it’s unlikely that the Chicago Cubs will finish with the worst record in baseball. At the moment, however, they very well may be just that. Chicago is 51-74 on the season, and has lost more money for bettors than any team in baseball (-33.1 units). They’re marginally better on the road from a profit/loss standpoint than they are at home (where they’re always overvalued despite their struggles) but even so they’re 22-36 -12.3 units away from the ‘friendly confines’ of Wrigley Field. And don’t expect any sort of newfound intensity or focus as a tribute to Lou Piniella—in his final game at the helm facing a 22 year old lefthander making his third MLB start the Cubbies were shelled 16-5. August can’t end soon enough for the Cubs—their record so far this month is a brutal 6-16 -7.5 units.

Sadly, the Cubs are marginally better against lefthanded pitching but a woeful 33-49 -19.8 units against right handers. And with Strasburg on the rack, they’re facing the ace of the Nationals’ staff today as crafty veteran Livan Hernandez takes the hill. Hernandez has cooled off somewhat from his early year form when he was nearly unhittable. He’s still got very solid YTD numbers, with a 3.06 ERA. At home, he’s been even better—he’s got a 2.88 ERA and Washington has won 9 of his 13 starts in his own yard. He’s been in good form lately despite the Nats dropping all three of his most recent starts due to shoddy run performance—he’s allowed a total of 6 ER against three decent opponents (at Atlanta, Florida, at LA Dodgers) for a 2.66 ERA in that stretch. Unfortunately, his teammates scored only 4 runs in support of his effort during that run.

They’ll probably have an easier time putting runs across against youngster Casey Coleman, who’ll make his second major league start here. Coleman wasn’t bad in his first outing, allowing 6 hits and 3 ER in 4.3 innings of work in a loss to San Diego. This will be his first road start, however, and with the team as a whole in freefall he’s not at the point where he can dominate on his own.

Washington took 2 of 3 from Chicago earlier this season, and has actually shown a +4.9 unit profit here at Nationals Park where they sport a winning record (31-27). They’re not favored by this much very often, but they’ve taken care of business this year when they are—as a favorite in this price range (-125 to -160) the Nats are 6-1 on the season. Washington has the edge in pitching, and with the horrible shape the Cubs are in now they’re a go-against every time out until further notice.

Bet Washington (Hernandez) -160 over Chicago Cubs (Coleman)