MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Added on Aug 14, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting season is winding down and by the end of the month the focus will be almost entirely on the teams still contending for postseason play. On Sunday, however, we’ve got an interesting opportunity in a game between the Washington Nationals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Neither team is still in the playoff picture, but Washington is a sizable favorite in this game with Steven Strasburg on the mound.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Barry Enright) at Washington Nationals (Steven Strasburg)
August 15, 2010—10:35 AM Pacific

The D-backs and Nationals split the first two game of this series, but with Steven Strasburg on the mound for Sunday’s game Washington is right around a -200 favorite. Strasburg is definitely a superstar of the future, but he’s been overpriced almost since he made his big league debut. The Nationals are 6-4 in Strasburg’s starts, meaning that if you’d bet on him in every one you’d have lost almost a full unit (-0.9 units to be exact). At home, Washington has gone 3-3 in his starts for a -2.9 unit loss. He’s off of his worst outing of the year against Florida where he allowed 6 hits and 6 ER in 4.3 innings of work. This was his first game off of the disabled list following a minor injury, so there’s no guarantee that his bad outing wasn’t due to coming back before he should have. He also may be hitting ‘the wall’ and feeling the fatigue of a long major league season.

Most casual fans would be shocked to learn that the Diamondbacks’ Barry Enright has been a better ‘investment’ for sports wagering enthusiasts than Strasburg. Enright has a 2.64 ERA overall and a 2.12 on the road. Arizona has split his starts 4-4 but that’s good for a small profit, and the team’s 2-1 record in his road starts is good for a 1.6 unit profit. Arizona isn’t a good road team and there are many teams that would make this a stronger play, but with Strasburg nowhere near top form there’s no reason not to take a position against him at this price. We’re getting an undervalued pitcher against an overpriced team with a ‘public’ pitcher that may still not be 100% recovered from his recent injury.

Bet Arizona (Enright) +180 over Washington (Strasburg)