MLB Baseball Betting: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 06, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Important NL East matchup in Philadelphia on Tuesday–at least for one of the teams involved. The Atlanta Braves have been playing excellent baseball in the past few weeks and have narrowed the Washington Nationals’ lead in the division to 2.5 games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is just playing out the string as arguably the most disappointing team in Major League Baseball.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
August 7, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

The betting public just doesn’t get how bad this Philadelphia Phillies team really is. It’s unclear if this is a function of the name on the uniform and their legacy of success, or a misguided hope that this talent laden but underachieving team will ‘turn things around’. It does appear that all it takes is the smallest modicum of success–like taking two of three games in their past two series (at home against Arizona, at Washington) and the betting lines readjust to levels reflecting an assumption that Philadelphia is all of a sudden a ‘competitive’ team despite copious evidence to the contrary. All it takes is a look at their YTD numbers and no matter how you slice ‘em it’s ugly. The Phillies have lost 24.1 units on the season following Monday’s series opening loss to the Braves. At home, they’ve lost -19.8 units, against divisional opponents they’ve lost -19.7 units and against opponents with winning records they’re -22.8 units.

So why are the Phillies favored? Probably due to the ‘name value’ of starter Cole Hamels and the fact that the Braves have lost money against southpaws (18-22 -6.4 units). The problem with that concept is that Hamels hasn’t been in dominating form this season and particularly in his most recent starts. At home, Hamels has a 3.10 ERA but the Phillies have split his 10 starts (-2.2 units). In his last three starts his ERA is 5.03, with Philadelphia losing all three. Mike Minor was below average earlier in the season but has been very sharp in his recent assignments–he’s got a 1.45 ERA in his last three including an 8 inning, 4 hit 1 ER performance at home against the Phillies.

Most significantly, the Phillies have been much worse against left handed pitching than the Braves. Philadelphia is 13-22 -13.7 units against left handers on the season. The Braves are the better team in better form and playing for a divisional title–they’ve already won 8 of 10 against the Phillies this year including all four meetings in Philadelphia.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Minor) +130 over Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels)