Law of averages favor Reds versus Oswalt

Added on Oct 08, 2010 by Ted Sillanpaa in

MLB

Reds outfielder Johnny Gomes, like most who follow postseason play, continued to heap praise on Phillies ace Roy Halladay after his no-hitter in Game 1 on Wednesday.

Before Friday’s Game 2, the best thing Gomes could say about the Reds’ chances was: “At least we don’t have to face him again.”

They are, however, facing Roy Oswalt – and Oswalt owns the Reds.

The veteran right-hander had a 15-game winning streak against the Reds at one point in his career..

Oswalt’s 23-3 lifetime against Cincy – and hasn’t lost a game in Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. He’s 9-0 with a 2.10 ERA at Citizen’s Bank.

As if the Reds need to have the odds against them hiked entering Game 2, consider that Oswalt is 5-0 with a 1.76 at home since joining the Phils.

Everyone seems quick to write the Reds off after Halladay’s masterpiece. The fact that the Reds were victimized by an historic performance could, in an odd way, give the Reds confidence that they can beat the Phillies assuming that Oswalt doesn’t deliver an epice performance.

Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce says the law of averages likely favor the Reds against Oswalt.

“We’ve faced Oswalt, he beat us, 20 times,” Bruce said before Game 2. “So I mean … time is on our side, I think. We’re due to beat him.”

** ESPN’s Rob Neyer spotlights Dan Rosencheck’s belief that San Francisco got a better performance from Tim Lincecum on Thursday night in beating the Braves, 1-0, than Philadelphia got Wednesday when Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds.

“Whose pitching was more valuable is an entirely different question — and the answer is even more favorable to Lincecum,” Rosencheck wrote.
Rosenchick’s rationale, which gives Lincecum’s 2-hit performance an edge over Halladay’s no-hitter, appears in detail at:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/5708/was-lincecum-better-than-halladay.

Logic indicates that Lincecum, pitching for punchless Giants team, performed under a great deal more pressure to keep the Braves from scoring than did Halladay when he faced the Reds and was staked to a 4-0 lead after two innings.

** Braves rookie Tommy Hanson has pitched well against the Giants as he enters his Game 2 start in San Francisco. The righty pitched seven strong innings against the Giants on Aug. 6, giving up just one run. He struck out three, walked two and gave up just three hits.

Giants starter Matt Cain, conversely, gave up three runs in five innings in a 3-0 August loss in Atlanta. Cain, who is susceptible to giving up the long ball, fanned four, walked two and gave up six hits.

Like all of the Giants starters, Cain bounced back from a terrible August to sparkle in September.

** Atlanta manager Bobby Cox committed an inexplicable blunder in Game 1 on Thursday night. He ordered an intentional walk to Pablo Sandoval, with Buster Posey on third base, to get to Cody Ross.

Sandoval, a switch-hitter, has struggled mightily in 2010 after have a banner rookie season in 2009. Sandoval will get himself outside the strike zone, without forcing the opposing pitcher to beat him in the strike zone.

Ross, conversely, has hit Atlanta pitching historically well during his career with the Marlins and has been a much more consistent hitter than Sandoval in the last month.

Ross, of course, bounced a single to left field off of Derek Lowe to give the Giants the one run that they needed to win.

** Those who were critical of Braves’ third baseman Omar Infante for not handling the Ross bouncer clearly didn’t notice the ball took a high hop over his glove. It wasn’t necessarily a bad hop, but it wasn’t one an infielder would’ve anticipated either.

** The Rays appeared dead in the water, losing two at home in the ALDS to the Rangers. However, Matt Garza (15-10) gives Tampa Bay a huge edge entering Saturday’s Game 3 in Texas.

The Rays seemed lifeless in the two opening losses. Garza, however, is the rare pitcher who brings an energy and some emotion to the mound. Remember, Garza and catcher Dioneer Navarro got into an altercation on the mound – and it carried into the Tampa Bay dugout – two years ago.
If a little fire in the belly matters during the baseball postseason, Garza is the guy the Rays want on the hill right now.

Garza faces Colby Lewis (12-13), who returned from playing in Japan to help pitch the Rangers to the AL West title. Garza has stopper stuff, so he should take some pressure off a suddenly struggling Rays offense. However, with Carlos Pena still sidelined – the Rays are struggling to score runs.
Give the Rays an edge with Garza – and the law of averages on their side in Game 3.