Baseball Betting Preview: Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres

Added on Apr 11, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

More National League action for Monday as the Cincinnati Reds try to build on their hot start as they head to California to take on the San Diego Padres. The Reds have gone 6-3 to open the season while the Padres are right at .500 with a 4-4 record.

Cincinnati Reds (Volquez) at San Diego Padres (Latos)
April 11, 2011 7:05 PM Pacific

The Reds dropped two of three at Arizona over the weekend–their first road games of the season–but other than that we can’t really understand why they’re not getting more respect here from the ‘public’. Padres opened the season by winning two of three against the bumbling St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium and have only won twice since. We like San Diego starter Mat Latos a lot–we used him every chance we got last year as he was always reasonably priced and turned in a solid effort. Cincy starter Edinson Volquez was pounded in his first start of the season and the Reds’ bullpen hasn’t looked particularly effective either. Padres have dominated head to head play in recent years–they’ve won 10 of the last 13 meetings including 5 of 6 at Petco Park.

Head to head matchup dominance means less in baseball than in any other sport. In football, basketball or hockey it can be a sign of a bad tactical matchup for the team on the losing end of a lopsided head to head record–a good case in point is in NBA basketball, where the Portland Trailblazers have dominated the San Antonio Spurs this year. The Blazers’ athleticism gives the long in the tooth Spurs fits, and barring a significant turnover in personnel that’s not going to change. In baseball, more often than not a disparity in head to head W/L records has more to do with coincidence than matchup dynamics. In our view, that’s what we’ve got here.

In other words, we need to look past the Padres’ record against the Reds to effectively handicap this game. Hard hitting Cincinnati made a ton of money against right handed pitching in 2010 and particularly on the road where they went 21-15 for +8.25 units of profit. The Padres, on the other hand, lost -7 units against RHP at home. Volquez is a better pitcher than his first start of the year suggests and he should bounce back nicely against a weak hitting Padres team.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Volquez) +100 over San Diego Padres (Latos)