Baseball Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Sep 06, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Labor Day brings us daytime baseball betting opportunities, and we’ll take a look at a National League game between the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. This is an important series for the Braves, with the Philadelphia Phillies breathing down their necks—and the Phils have a double header against Florida on Monday. Pittsburgh is one of the more inept teams in baseball, but they’ve actually made a profit in certain situations.

Atlanta Braves (Hanson) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Burres)
September 6, 2010—10:35 AM Pacific

No matter how you slice it, Pittsburgh is a bad team. They’ve got the worst record in baseball, and have won five fewer games than the Baltimore Orioles who have the *second* worst record in the MLB. They’ve lost a ton of money for bettors, dropping -23.4 units overall. Much of their problem is their absolute ineptitude playing away from PNC Park—they’ve got a 14-53 road record. They enter this contest having lost two straight and seven of their last ten.

At home, however, they’re borderline competent. They’ve got a 31-38 home record, and from a betting perspective they’ve actually turned a profit at home (+3 units). In this matchup, that’s important since they’re facing a team that also struggles on the road relative to their performance at home. Atlanta has the best home record in baseball at 49-19, but away from Turner Field they’re just 30-38 -10.5 units. In other words, their road record is worse than Pittsburgh’s home record.

Pittsburgh will start Oregon City, Oregon native Brian Burres here and while he may not be a dominating pitcher he is a lefthander. That’s also significant as the Braves have lost money against southpaws this year (24-25 -8.2 units). On the road against lefthanders, the Braves are 8-15 -9.3 units. Like the Pirates as a whole, Burres has struggled on the road and pitched well at home. In two home assignments this season Burres has a 2.08 ERA and Pittsburgh won both games for a +3 unit profit.

The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson, who has been one of their most consistent pitchers this season. He’s arguably pitched better on the road than any of Atlanta’s starters—the Braves have won 8 of his 13 starts away from Turner Field and he’s got a respectable 3.27 ERA. His last two road starts have been bad, however, with 10 earned runs allowed in two Braves’ losses.

Obviously, the Pirates have the ability to put up an embarrassing performance any time they take the field. In this game, however, the Braves are in a couple of money losing situations and with a big price a speculative position on Pittsburgh is justified.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Burres) +180 over Atlanta Braves (Hanson)