Baseball Betting: Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros

Added on Jul 29, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates may be the biggest surprise of the 2012 MLB baseball season and enter this game with the last place Houston Astros just 2 games behind the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been playing great baseball lately so the Pirates have been hard pressed just to keep pace with their rivals. On Sunday they’ll go for the sweep against the last place Houston Astros.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros
July 29, 2012 11:05 PM Pacific

The Houston Astros are playing brutal baseball at the moment. They’re not only bad, they’re monumentally bad. They’ve lost 12 straight games and 22 of their last 24 contests. At one point they had actually generated a small profit at home but after a loss on Saturday are barely in the black on their own field (+0.9 units). Houston hasn’t been getting blown out this weekend but they’ve lost nonetheless.

At this point it’s not so much an issue of whether or not you should bet against the Astros, but whether you can do so at a reasonable price. Based on the opening line on this game this looks reasonable. Statistically, the Astros actually have the starting pitching edge–Lucas Harrell has been very sharp this year and particularly at home. At Minute Maid Park the right hander has a glossy 1.89 ERA. In his last three starts he’s been even better, posting a 1.42 ERA. Not that it has done any good–despite Harrell’s strong showing the Astros managed to lose all three of those games.

James McDonald has been hit hard in his last few starts but that may have more to do with the opposition (Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies) and setting (Coors Field) than anything else. He should have a much easier time against the Astros who rank in the bottom tier of most offensive categories. The Pirates have been at their best against bad teams–against opponents with losing records Pittsburgh is 31-15 +16 units and +23.2 units overall. They’ve also put up impressive numbers against right handed pitching going 42-31 +17.4 units. Until the Houston Astros show some positive momentum they’ll strictly be a ‘go against’ and we’ll gladly go against them today.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (McDonald) -145 over Houston Astros (Harrell)