Baseball Betting Picks: Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels

Added on Jul 27, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

East meets West on Friday night as the Los Angeles Angels host the Tampa Bay Rays with both teams trying to make up ground in their respective divisional races. The Rays have been up and down this season but they–along with the rest of the AL East–is being left in the dust by the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay is currently in third place, 8.5 games back of the ‘Bronx Bombers’ and 1 game behind the second place Baltimore Orioles. The Angels are in a similar situation as they try to close the five game gap between themselves and the first place Texas Rangers. They’ve also got to be concerned with the surging Oakland A’s who are now just 1/2 game behind in third place.

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels
July 27, 2012 7:05 PM Pacific

The early season struggles of the Los Angeles Angels are all but forgotten, but they still need to pick up the pace if they want to take a run at the Texas Rangers. The Halos are just 6-7 in their last 13 games and have been fortunate that Texas has been treading water lately as well. A bigger problem could be in their rear view mirror–the Oakland A’s are doing anything *but* treading water at the moment. Oakland had their 7 game winning streak broken by the Toronto Blue Jays last night but they’ve still won 8 of 10 and are just 1/2 game back of the Angels.

The Tampa Bay Rays may not be able to run down the New York Yankees, but if they can string a few wins together they’ve got a realistic shot at one of the wildcard spots. Like the Angels, however, they have to start playing more consistently and their recent form (3-7 L13) won’t get it done.

The similarities between these teams underscores our premise in betting this game–this is a very evenly matched contest yet it is not priced as such. The Angels are a -160 home favorite and that’s a tough price to justify. Los Angeles has lost money (-1.6 units) at home this season and today’s starter–Dan Haren–might be the ‘weak link’ of the pitching staff. Haren has a 4.38 ERA in his home assignments with the Angels losing 7 of his 10 starts. His recent form hasn’t been good either–he’s allowed 15 ER in his last three starts for a 7.72 ERA.

Alex Cobb’s numbers aren’t much better but the Rays have had considerable success against the Angels in recent years. Tampa Bay swept a three game set at home earlier this season and they’ve won 7 of their last 9 against the Angels in Southern California. Tampa Bay is clearly the value side in a matchup that is much more even than the line would suggest.

Bet Tampa Bay Rays (Cobb) +150 over Los Angeles Angels (Haren)