Baseball Betting Picks: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals

Added on Aug 02, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

NL Central matchup this weekend between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals which could have playoff implications. The Brewers are coming off a sweep of the Houston Astros but are well off the pace. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are playing good baseball and threatening to assert themselves in the divisional title race which for most of the summer has been a two team affair between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates. With the Reds and Pirates going head to head this weekend the Cards are in a position to make up some ground.

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
August 3, 2012 5:15 PM Pacific

Don’t be fooled by the Milwaukee Brewers sweep of the lowly Houston Astros–this is a team going nowhere. The Brewers are 48-56 on the season for a loss of -17 units and they’ve been especially ineffective on the road. Away from Miller Park they’re 18-30 -14.6 units and as an underdog in this price range (+125 to +150) they’re 2-8 -5.2 units. They’ve also been a big money loser against right handed pitching going 34-42 -14.7 units.

The Cardinals have been treading water for much of the season but they’re in decent form of late. They’ve won 7 of their last 10 games and 9 of their last 12 matchups (pending the result of Thursday night’s game at Colorado). They’ll start righthander Joe Kelly who has pitched reasonably well since entering the St. Louis rotation. He’s got a home ERA of 2.31 though he hasn’t always received support from the Cards’ offense. That’s a marked contrast to Milwaukee’s Randy Wolf, a journeyman southpaw who has been awful on the road–away from home he’s got a 6.44 ERA and the Brewers have lost 7 of his 8 starts. That’s especially worrisome here since the Cardinals have been solid against left handers this season going 21-11 +6.9 units and putting up very impressive offensive numbers hitting .295 and averaging 6.1 runs per game against southpaws.

The Cardinals have a tendency to be erratic but from a strictly statistical standpoint this is a great matchup for them and a terrible matchup for the Brewers. We’ll lay the chalk price on the Cardinals and expect them to earn a sweep this weekend against the bumbling Brewers.

Bet St. Louis Cardinals (Kelly) -155 over Milwaukee Brewers (Wolf)