Baseball Betting Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 20, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Before the season started this looked like a ‘marquee matchup’ paper but things haven’t worked out according to script. The Cincinnati Reds are neck and neck with the Washington Nationals for the best record in baseball while the Phillies are trying to avoid finishing in the NL East basement. Cincinnati has opened up a 6.5 game lead in the NL Central over second place Pittsburgh while the Phillies now have a 1.5 game lead over last place Miami for the NL East cellar.

Cincinnati Reds (Leake) at Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)
August 20, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Starting pitching is a significant part of baseball linesmaking and handicapping but it’s not everything. A frequent mistake of beginning baseball bettors is to treat it like it’s the *only* salient component in handicapping a matchup when that’s far from being the case. Perfect example here–credit to the Philadelphia Phillies for continuing to play hard down the stretch despite the fact that they’re nowhere near where they expected to be at this point. They were a preseason choice of many to contend for the divisional title but they’re far off that pace. Despite having nothing to play for and in a ‘rebuilding mode’ with several veterans moved at the trade deadline Philadelphia has actually turned a profit so far in August going 10-8 +2 units. Of course that does little to negate their brutal YTD performance for baseball bettors where they’ve lost a ton of money in virtually every situation: -22.2 units overall, -22 units against teams with winning records, -19.4 units at home and -9.4 units against right handed pitchers.

The Reds, meanwhile, have been profitable in just about every situational breakdown-+17.4 units overall, +11.2 units against right handed pitching and +5.8 units on the road. They’re 31-14 since July 1st. Mike Leake started the season in horrific form–at one point the word on the street was that he was at risk of being sent down to the minors–but has recovered to become a very consistent pitcher. His overall ERA of 4.29 isn’t much to write home about (and wasn’t helped by his poor start that produced a 6.55 April ERA) but since then he’s been consistently solid and has been pretty good on the road all season. Away from home his YTD ERA is 3.13 and his L3 ERA is 3.43 with a 0.905 WHIP. The Reds have won 12 of his 23 starts this season which is somewhat remarkable considering they lost 5 of his first 6 outings this season.

Of course the reason for this price is the ‘name value’ of Philadelphia starter Roy Halladay. Halladay was hit like a pinata earlier this season and lost 3 of his first 4 starts before spending nearly two months on the DL with a strained back muscle. He’s been sharp since his return and the Phillies have won 4 of his 6 starts. In three August starts the Phillies have gone 2-1 and Halladay has allowed a total of 4 earned runs while striking out 20 and only walking 2. Worth noting that his wins–and best performances–have come against teams that were struggling to hit the ball at the time (LA Dodgers), underachieving teams (Milwaukee) and a pair of erratic teams in St. Louis and Arizona.

Ultimately, however, this isn’t about Halladay–it’s an opportunity to bet on one of the best teams in baseball in a profitable situation against arguably the most disappointing team in the league in a money losing situation. The Phillies could bring Grover Cleveland Alexander back from the dead to start and we’d still have to take the underdog price with the Reds. Cincinnati knows that it can’t sit on their 6.5 game lead over Pittsburgh–in the Pirates 41 remaining games only 12 are against teams over .500 and were that not enough the Bucs have 13 games against the Astros and Cubs–two of the three worst teams in baseball.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +135 over Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)