Baseball Betting Picks: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

Added on Aug 31, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Big AL East showdown on Friday as the Baltimore Orioles head to the ‘Big Apple’ to take on the division leading New York Yankees. Baltimore has narrowed the Yankees advantage atop the division to just three games and is 1.5 games ahead of third place Tampa Bay. The teams will rematch this series starting September 7th at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
August 31, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

A big mistake that beginning baseball handicappers make is getting too hung up on ‘picking winners’. In reality, the name of the name is ‘valuation’. If you can find a team that is undervalued relative to their ability and bet them you’ll make money over the long term. The opposite is also true–if you fade a team that is ‘overvalued’ that’s equally as effective. Where neophytes go wrong is that they often get this dynamic backwards–they buy into mainstream sports media hype and ‘overpay’ for teams with a ‘big name’ and dismiss lower profile teams that are better than the chattering classes on ESPN suggest.

We’ve got a perfect example of that here–given the relative form of both teams this price is *way* too high. The New York Yankees are in below average form, having lost 6 of their last 10 games and allowing Tampa Bay and Baltimore to creep back in to the AL East race. Baltimore, conversely, has been playing their best baseball of the year when it counts–they enter this game having won 7 of 10 and 17 of their last 26. So why are the Yankees a -200 favorite? Much of that has to do with the performance of starter Hiroki Kuroda, who has been very good at home this year with a 2.22 ERA in 15 starts at Yankee Stadium where the home team has a 10-5 record when he takes the hill. But as we so often stress starting pitching is only part of the baseball handicapping equation.

Miguel Gonzalez will start for Baltimore and he’s been solid, if not spectacular this year. On the road he’s got an ERA of 3.06 and the O’s have won 4 of his 5 assignments. Basically, Baltimore is a better team in better form than this line suggests while the Yankees have not been playing their best baseball of late. Baltimore has already won 4 of 6 from New York at Yankee Stadium this year and at this big price they’re definitely the value side.

Bet Baltimore Orioles (Gonzalez) +185 over New York Yankees (Kuroda)