Baseball Betting: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Added on Aug 01, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Washington Nationals will try to bounce back from a lopsided defeat to the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night as they conclude their three game series on Wednesday. The Phillies pounded Washington ace Stephen Strasburg and handed him his worst loss of the year.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
August 1, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Cliff Lee looked like his old self on Tuesday, but there’s no reason to think that the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are about to undergo a reversal of their year long form. That’s an important concept for handicappers since less experienced and/or successful bettors have a tendency to overreact to the short term. Based on the price on today’s game that appears to be the case here but the reality of these team’s 2012 seasons hasn’t changed– Philadelphia is still 16.5 games out of first place and mired in last place in the NL East. They’ve lost big money in almost every baseball betting situation including -19 units against divisional rivals and -22.8 units against opponents with winning records. The team’s management is well aware of their situation, which is why they were ‘sellers’ at Tuesday’s trade deadline sending Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino out of town.

The Phillies Vance Worley has pitched reasonably well on the road this year, but his team hasn’t done much with it. Philadelphia has lost 5 of his 8 road starts and 10 of 17 overall. Ironically, they’ve won 2 of his last three assignments despite Worley not pitching particularly well (5.50 ERA in L3 games). Edwin Jackson gets the start for Washington and he’s been consistent all season. Of course there’s so much more to handicapping baseball than comparing the starting pitchers and that’s where Washington really earns the nod–they’re in first place, have won 8 of their last 10 and are starting to feel some pressure from the Atlanta Braves. While the Phillies have lost money in just about every situational breakdown the Nationals have made money (+13.8 units overall). And while they struggled last night against southpaw Cliff Lee they’ve cleaned up against right handers this year going 44-28 +12.6 units. The Phillies got the win last night, but that doesn’t change the fundamental dynamics of this matchup and the fact that the Nationals are the better team.

Bet Washington Nationals (Jackson) -135 over Philadelphia Phillies (Worley)