Baseball Betting: Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

Added on May 04, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

This series could validate what looks like a ‘changing of the guard’ in the National League East. The Philadelphia Phillies–one of the dominant teams in the division of late–are limping along playing .500 baseball. The long suffering Nationals, meanwhile, are leading the division and quickly putting together a pitching staff that could rival the great Atlanta Braves rotations during their run of divisional dominance.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
May 4, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

How things change. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Washington DC to take on the Nationals and the betting line on this game is so strange as to justify a second look. At their best–and at the Nationals’ nadir–it wouldn’t have been surprising to see the Phillies posted as a prohibitive favorite in this matchup. The shoe is on the other foot this time, however, and thanks to what on paper is a huge pitching mismatch the Nationals are a -200 home favorite.

We’ll get into the pitching mismatch shortly. The Phillies have epitomized ‘mediocre’ this season going 13-13 overall, 8-8 on the road and 5-5 at home. The lines are starting to catch up with their drop in form but they’ve still lost money for bettors in virtually all settings this season. By contrast, the Nationals are leading the NL East thanks in large part to a dominating home field advantage. Washington has tread water on the road going 6-6 but have posted a 10-3 +6.1 unit mark at home.

And there may not be a more lopsided pitching matchup this season–Philadelphia will go with struggling Kyle Kendrick who has bounced between the starting rotation and the bullpen. In two starts this season he’s been hit hard, losing both and posting a 9.00 ERA. He’s done marginally better in relief and has a 6.59 ERA overall. He was pummelled mercilessly in his only road appearance this season–an early season start at Arizona and that is reflected in a 21.00 road ERA.

In the Nationals’ corner is the phenomenal Stephen Strasburg. Heading into the season there was concern if he could regain his old form after ‘Tommy John’ surgery. The fact that he’s allowed 4 ER in 5 starts while striking out 36 strongly suggests that he has. What’s frightening, of course, is that he might actually get *better* if he’s still a few percentage points short of 100%. Strasburg was on a tight pitch count early in the season and the Nats are still careful with him but he’s on a slightly longer rope now. He’s only 2-0 this season due to not going deep in many games, but his innings per game average is up to almost 6 1/2 innings per start. The Nats also blew the last game he started, losing 4-3 at Los Angeles. All Strasburg contributed was 7 innings of 5 hit baseball, allowing 1 ER and striking out 9 while not allowing a walk.

Bet Washington Nationals (Strasburg) -200 over Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick)