Baseball Betting: Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

Added on May 09, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Great pitching duel in Miami on Tuesday as the Phillies’ Roy Halladay hooks up with the Marlins’ Josh Johnson. Phillies currently in first place in the NL East with the Marlins just two games back. This is the second of a three game series between the teams.

Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay) at Florida Marlins (Johnson)
May 10, 2011 4:10 PM Pacific

Pitching matchup between two of the best in the business. Roy Halladay is 5-1 with a 2.19 ERA. On the road he’s 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA. In his last three starts he’s been even better–3-0 with a 1.46 ERA. Josh Johnson is 3-1 with a 1.68 ERA and he’s 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA at home. Phillies have actually lost money this year against RHP (13-10 -1.2 units) while the Marlins have done well against them (16-8 +8.8 units). Philadelphia has been a very good road team at 9-4 +4.1 units while Florida is just adequate at home at 11-7 +1.8 units.

Philadelphia has brutalized Florida in head to head play–since 2008 (not including Monday’s series opener) the Phillies are 15-3 +12.7 units at Miami. Interestingly, the Marlins have had much more success on the road against Philadelphia–they’re 12-8 at Citizens Bank Park in the same timeframe. We respect the way that Florida has knocked around RHP this year but that’s a tall order against a guy with Halladay’s skills and in his current form. We typically like Josh Johnson but think he’s somewhat overvalued from a betting perspective–that has more to do with his team than anything he’s done. On the other side of the equation, Phillies don’t have a lot of weaknesses on offense with a top 10 team batting average.

Given the way that the Phillies have dominated the Marlins on this field in recent years we like the value we’re getting on the road team. We expect a low scoring game but don’t really want to go Under such a low total. Instead, we’ll look for the Phillies to extend their lead in the NL East by taking a victory in this matchup. It’s not every day you’re able to back Roy Halladay at a near ‘pick’em’ price and with Philadelphia playing well on the road this season we’re not going to pass up this opportunity.

Bet Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay) -115 over Florida Marlins (Johnson)