Baseball Betting: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 22, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

As they’d say in the UK and Australia this series is ‘all level’. The Reds won the second game of this four game set and could be poised to take the rest as they move into the lower half of the Philadelphia pitching rotation. They’ve now opened a 7.5 game lead over the sputtering Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Central and could extend that lead today as the Bucs continue their uncanny struggle against the San Diego Padres.

Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) at Philadelphia Phillies (Worley)
August 22, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Our confidence in the Cincinnati Reds–and our handicapping–was justified yesterday and we see no reason to change course here. Many successful baseball handicappers don’t handicap by the game but rather by the series. This isn’t always possible, of course, since some teams struggle against certain pitchers or in certain situations but often you’ll come across a series where it’s fairly easy to determine that one team is simply better than the other. When this happens you can play the superior team throughout as long as (in the words of noted sports handicapper Bob Barker) “the price is right”.

The Phillies did go on a short upswing in late July/early August but it didn’t last long. For whatever reason, however, linesmakers and the betting public continue to overvalue this team. Here is the ugly reality of the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2012 season: -22.7 units overall, -22.5 units against teams with winning records, -19.9 units at home and -9.9 units against right handed pitchers. Obviously linesmaking–like handicapping–is situational but it boggles the mind how that team could be considered a ‘play on’ against a Cincinnati team that has won 75 games and has the second best overall record in baseball. The Reds have been a very profitable team this year and have made money in just about every situational breakdown.

Brandon Arroyo may not be the best member of the Reds’ rotation but since the Phillies will counter with Vance Worley they’ll still have the edge in this department. Worley has been horrible in his recent starts averaging 4 2/3 innings per assignment and posting a 7.93 ERA in that stretch. He should be easy pickings for a potent Reds offense that hasn’t shown any signs of letting up on the intensity despite an ever widening lead atop the division.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo) +100 over Philadelphia Phillies (Worley)