Baseball Betting: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Jul 07, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Game two of a weekend series between National League East rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta and at least one of these teams can’t wait for the All Star Break. The Braves have been treading water in the division for much of the year but–to employ a horse racing metaphor–they’ve got a reputation as a strong ‘closer’ and have come from off the pace countless times during the past several decades. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is a mess with 10 losses in their last 13 games. They can’t seem to get out of their own way at the moment and are no doubt looking forward to a few days of ‘R&R’:

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
July 7, 2012 4:15 PM Pacific

So where do we start with Philadelphia? They played reasonably well for most of the opening game of the series on Friday night but the Braves got a grand slam home run late to secure a 5-0 victory. Most significantly for the baseball handicapper, the Phillies offensive struggles continued. Atlanta, meanwhile, seems to be getting into an offensive groove which combined with their always solid pitching could foretell trouble for the rest of the NL East.

The Braves have done at least one thing differently this season–they’ve struggled at Turner Field (where they’re usually strong) and have been winning on the road (where they usually struggle). The Braves are 24-17 away from home which is good for +9.2 units of profit. Philadelphia can’t win anywhere but they’ve been especially bad at Citizens Bank Park posting a substandard 17-25 record which translates to a -18.7 unit loss.

Both from a fan perspective and that of a baseball betting enthusiast there’s no more disappointing team in the Major Leagues. The Phillies are 37-48 overall which has produced a whopping -22.6 unit loss. They’ve gone 11-20 -14.4 units against their own division and 17-28 -17.9 units against teams with winning records. Today’s starting pitcher Joe Blanton has at least been consistent which an ERA in the mid 4′s in just about every situational breakdown. The Phillies have even won 5 of his 8 home starts. The problem is that Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson has also been consistent and–on the road at least–better than his Philadelphia counterpart. Away from home Hanson has a 2.89 ERA and the Braves have won 6 of his 9 assignments. Pretty simple premise here–it doesn’t take much to go against the slumping Phillies and we’re getting a solid team at a good price in the process.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Hanson) -105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton)