2012 MLB All Star Game Betting: National League vs. American League
Added on Jul 10, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
No Comments
For a professional handicapper or sports betting enthusiast, this is one of the slowest weeks of the year. The only thing that can compare is Christmas Eve, but even that has become more active in recent years. Besides, it’s a welcome lull amid the wall to wall action both before and after–college football bowl games, the start of college basketball season, NHL, NBA and the stretch run in NFL football.
The week of the MLB All Star game is a de facto vacation week for many in the sports betting industry on both sides of the counter. It’s already the slowest time of the year–after the end of the NBA and NHL seasons and before the start of the NFL preseason. At least it’s better than it was just a few years ago–there’s now a smattering of WNBA and CFL games on the board. ‘Back in the day’ the day before and after the All Star Game were often devoid of any sports betting opportunities whatsoever at least in North America.
National League vs. American League
July 10, 2012 5:30 PM Pacific
So how do you handicap the All Star Game? Good question since many of the metrics that are effective in regular season games don’t apply here. The starting pitchers are both excellent–Justin Verlander for the AL and Matt Cain for the NL–but they won’t pitch more than 2 or 3 innings. There’s plenty of talent in the bullpen for each side, but they won’t pitch more than an inning in most cases. Plenty of offensive firepower on each side of the field as well but with a 34 man roster there’s so much depth and such strong pressure to get everyone in the game that it’ll be hard for any player to get ‘into a rhythm’.
Plus there’s the fact that everyone knows the deal. The All Star Game has been characterized by long streaks of success by one team or another. From the 60′s through the late 1980′s the National League dominated. Now the momentum has swung the other way and the American League is in control. But that’s likely factored in to the line–and in a one game situation you can make a compelling case for taking the value with the underdog.
From a serious betting standpoint there’s really not much you can do with the side. We lean to the American League but the line is probably where it should be based on their recent success. A better betting position could be on the total–the public perception is that All Star games in all sports are offensive exhibitions with very little defense. In the NHL, NBA and NFL that’s definitely true–but baseball is the exception and pitching seems to have the advantage. 2005 was the last time the All Star Game saw more than 10 runs scored and four straight and five of six have gone ‘Under’ the total.
Bet American League -135 over National League
Bet AL/NL Under 8.5 -110
