Preakness 2011: Astrology Looks To Win From The Rail

Added on May 20, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Horse Racing

One of the most challenging components of handicapping for Preakness betting purposes is evaluating just how good horses that didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby really are. Their connections will always put a positive ‘spin’ on why their horses didn’t compete in ‘The Run for the Roses’ but it’s not always easy to discern fact from fiction. That dynamic makes the Steve Asmussen trained Astrology a very intriguing entry in Saturday’s 136th running of the Preakness Stakes.

Astrology will start from the rail and was priced at 15-1 on the ‘morning line’. He’s since received nominal betting interest and as of Friday afternoon had dropped to 13-1. Had Asmussen had chosen to do so, Astrology could have competed in the Kentucky Derby–he had enough graded stakes winnings to do so–but a concern about his lack of work kept them from ‘pulling the trigger’ on the race. Astrology had only one race in six months prior to the Derby, with his last outging being a credible effort in tough conditions at Aqueduct in the Jerome. Astrology hit his head on the gate in the start but ended up finishing second on a sloppy track.

It’s not unprecedented for a horse that didn’t run in the Derby to win the Preakness–it’s been done three times since 2000, most recently by super filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Trainer Asmussen thinks that Astrology will be a contender on Saturday:

“He shows up in a lot of the players’ form, he’s kept a high level of competition. His not being in the Derby is more surprising than his being in the Preakness.”

A son of AP Indy, Astrology’s three year old campaign got off to a rough start when he missed some training time over the winter due to illness. He did not make his 3-year-old debut until the Sunland Derby on March 27, when he appeared to tire late but held on to finish second behind Twice the Appeal.

Jockey Mike Smith is glad to have the Jerome behind him: