Kentucky Derby Betting: Dialed In Current Betting Favorite

Added on May 07, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Horse Racing

With Uncle Mo not in the race, the Kentucky Derby betting public made the Nick Zito trained Dialed In a clear favorite for Saturday’s race. Late in the day with $276,000 bet into the win pool Dialed In was a 9-2 favorite for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby. Second choice in a wide open field was the Calvin Borel mount Twice The Appeal along with Nehro at 7-1.

Obviously for a horse to attract so much of the betting public’s attention in a 20 horse field he most offer considerable upside. Much of this is the fact that he’s trained by Nick Zito who has won two previous Kentucky Derby races. Dialed In exploded onto the contenders board in his last effort, an impressive ‘worst to first’ run in the Florida Derby. Zito’s previous Kentucky Derby winners were Strike the Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1991. Zito says that Dialed In deserves his status as race favorite:

“He’s worthy of it. Everything this horse gets he deserves. He’s a wonderful horse, he’s done everything he’s supposed to do. Uncle Mo’s not in right now, and that sounds good to me.”

The public’s enthusiasm for Dialed In doesn’t negate the fact that this is a race without a clear cut favorite. In fact, there’s considerable downside to Dialed In as well. First of all, his status as the favorite alone can be seen as a negative since it makes him a poor betting value. There’s several other strikes against Dialed In as well–his all important Beyer speed figure isn’t particularly impressive. In fact, 11 horses in the field have a higher Beyer figure which is especially problematic in a year largely devoid of overwhelming speed. Perhaps the biggest concern is his relative inexperience–Dialed In has only four previous career starts and that contradicts the ‘profile’ of most Kentucky Derby winners. Since 1982 only one horse has won the Kentucky Derby with four or fewer career starts.
In a wide open field without a dominant favorite–let alone a group of top contenders–it’s tough to ignore Dialed In who is trained by one of the best in the business. At the chalk price, however, we can’t recommend using him in a ‘win’ bet but will be using him in trifectas and superfectas.