NFL Betting Picks: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Added on Nov 09, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

There are signs of life in Tampa Bay, where the Bucs have clawed their way to a 5-3 SU record. They’ve personified ‘winning ugly’ but that is a remarkable turnaround for a team that won only 3 games all of last year. Carolina, meanwhile, is a mess and is lucky to be 1-7. This may not be the ‘marquee matchup’ of the NFL weekend but does provide a couple of good football betting opportunities.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
November 14, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

This game opened with Tampa Bay a -7′ point home favorite and quickly moved as bettors took the points with Carolina. The Bucs now stand as -6′ point home favorites–while we get the logic of taking the more than a TD with Carolina in theory its harder to rationalize in practice. The Bucs have been favored twice this season and although they won both games SU they’re 0-1-1 ATS. Historically, Carolina has been a strong play as an underdog though they’ve not performed exceptionally well in that role in recent years.

We get the logic, but we can’t agree with it. Tampa Bay still has some big holes to fill on both sides of the ball, but they play hard and have shown a tendency to scrap out wins. Against this class, it may come easier than anything they’ve faced this year. Tampa Bay won 20-7 at Carolina earlier this season and its hard to suggest that the Panthers are a better team now. QB Matt Moore is out for the year, and coach John Fox is considering giving rookie Tony Pike his first NFL start. Pike has considerable upside and could turn into a decent NFL quarterback, but at this point it really doesn’t matter if its him or fellow rookie Jimmy Claussen–Tampa Bay will have by far the best quarterback on the field with rapidly improving Josh Freeman. Having Steve Smith back in the lineup helps, but he can’t do it alone–and particularly with so little experience at quarterback. Compounding Carolina’s problems–they could be without their top two running backs here as Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are both listed as ‘questionable’.

The Bucs’ biggest problem is run defense but that really doesn’t matter against this depleted Panthers’ squad. Carolina has scored 14 or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay may only average 19.6 PPG, but Carolina averages a pitiful 11 PPG–a full 5.3 PPG fewer than #31 Seattle. We expect ‘deja vu all over again’ with a result similar to the Bucs earlier win in Charlotte–a low scoring rout.

Bet Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6′ over Carolina Panthers
Bet Tampa Bay/Carolina Under 36