NFL Betting Free Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons

Added on Nov 09, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Thursday night NFL betting this week features a very compelling non conference game between the NFC South leading Atlanta Falcons and the AFC North leading Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are coming in off a victory, with Baltimore beating Miami and the Falcons taking care of Tampa Bay. Both teams have playoff aspirations so this should be a hotly contested matchup.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
November 11, 2010 5:20 PM Pacific

We have a ton of respect for this Ravens team and note that they’ve been a very good road play in recent years. Since 2008 they’re 14-9 ATS on the road including 8-1 ATS as a road dog of 3 or less. They deserve a ton of credit for that, but the reality is that they’re just not as good of a team away from home–and particularly on offense. Away from home they’re averaging just 14.2 PPG this season and although they’re allowing only 15.2 PPG that’s still a -1 differential. The defense is also statistically better at home–at home, opposing passers have an average QB rating of 74 against the Ravens while on the road its 104.

This price also suggests that the Falcons aren’t getting the credit they deserve. Since Matt Ryan took over at quarterback Atlanta has been a very strong play at the Georgia Dome posting a 12-5-1 ATS record. So far this season they’re 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS and they’ve covered 7 of their last 10 at home. The Falcons are also 8-3 SU/ATS in their last 11 non conference games. The Ravens are also good in non conference games, covering 6 of their last 8 but worth noting that they’ve only covered 3 of their last 9 against opponents with winning records (3-5-1 ATS). And they’re not exactly a team that thrives indoors–they’ve lost their last 3 dome games going 1-2 ATS.

The public is currently backing Baltimore with a couple of books moving this game to ‘pick’. Nothing but respect for the Ravens’ franchise, but we don’t think that Atlanta is getting their ‘props’ here and look for them to win this game. At the price, that’s all we need them to do.

Bet Atlanta Falcons PK over Baltimore Ravens