NFL Betting Free Picks: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Added on Nov 07, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Dallas Cowboys are certainly the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season. They entered the season with hopes of hosting the Superbowl at Cowboys Stadium but they now stand at 1-6. Tony Romo is injured and may not play again this year, and Wade Phillips is almost certainly gone at the end of the season. This week they head to Green Bay to take on the Packers who have been somewhat disappointing themselves, but are nonetheless in first place in the NFL West with a 5-3 record.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
November 7, 2010 5:25 PM Pacific

There’s an expression from stock market investing that sure looks to apply here–the ‘dead cat bounce’. That’s when a stock has been so discounted and beaten down by investors that its hit rock bottom and there’s nowhere to go but up. We’re not expecting miracles from this Cowboys’ team, but even with Jon Kitna at quarterback they’re definitely more talented than their record suggests. There’s a lot of situational reasons to go against Green Bay here–they’re seriously banged up themselves, are coming off two overtime games and have a bye on deck. Still, even getting a full touchdown we’re not ready to put our money on the Cowboys putting up a big effort in this spot.

On the other hand, we do expect their offense to have more success moving the ball against Green Bay’s defense than in most of their recent games. The Packers have a solid secondary and have only allowed 8 TD passes this season, but statistically are nothing special ranking #17 in pass defense. They’re 25th in rushing defense and #18 in total defense–and that’s including their shutout against the Jets last week which had more to do with the New York offense struggling than anything else. There’s nothing about the Packers’ defense that suggests that Dallas can’t move the ball against them.

So instead of backing the Cowboys and hoping they decide to compete, we’ll look for this game to go Over the total. Jon Kitna has been interception prone throughout his career and the Packers have played careless football all year so there should be plenty of turnovers. Aaron Rodgers should light up a vulnerable Cowboys’ defense that made David Garrard look like Peyton Manning last week. Cowboys have allowed 24+ points in five of their last six games, and a total of 76 points in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Giants. Rodgers is arguably the best quarterback they’ve faced this year. We look for a lot of points on the board and an easy Over.

Bet Dallas Cowboys/Green Bay Packers Over 45′