NFL Betting Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Added on Oct 20, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Moving along with Sunday’s NFL betting action we’ll take a look at a matchup in the AFC as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has been their usual inconsistent selves this season, while the Chiefs have been one of the big surprises of the NFL season to date.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
October 24, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

This game is still off the board at most books due to the questionable status of Jaguars’ starter David Garrard, but we expect a line to be posted within the next day or so. As far as we’re concerned, our play is the same with or without Garrard in the lineup. We’d actually like him to play as you’ll likely see KC as -6 or -7 favorites with Trent Edwards under center as opposed to -4′ or -5 with Garrard. It’s not like he’s played any better than Edwards this season and is almost certainly the most overpaid player in the league at his position pulling down a ridiculous $10 million per.

Credit where credit is due to Chiefs’ coach Todd Haley. I initially thought that he’d be fired quicker than the Redskins’ Jim Zorn but KC let him do things his way and are starting to see some dramatic improvements. Their offense still isn’t where it should be and Matt Cassel probably isn’t the answer at QB, but Haley has put together a nasty defense. They struggled last time out, allowing 35 points at Houston but before that had held every other opponent to 20 or less–including Peyton Manning and the Colts who managed only 19 points against the Chiefs.

As was evident in their non-competitive loss to the Titans on Monday night football, the Jaguars’ defense is horrible. Tennessee chose to exploit their #20 ranked rushing defense, but they could have easily targeted the Jags #28 ranked passing defense. Cassel isn’t much of a quarterback, but even he torched the Texans #32 ranked passing defense last week and its not like the Jaguars are much better. Combined with an offense that will struggle to sustain drives and keep the defense off the field, Cassel could have a bigger day here. In many ways, can just do what the Titans did on Monday–use Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles on the ground to set up downfield passing opportunities for Cassel.

Jacksonville is a horrid ATS team overall (now on a 5-13 ATS run) and has been particularly bad on natural grass (7-18 ATS L25). Ultimately, it’s a matchup of two teams heading in opposite directions. KC is on the rise while Jacksonville may not have the worst record in the league but are arguably the worst franchise top to bottom in the NFL. Whether Garrard or Edwards starts at QB it really won’t matter and this could be a spot where the Jags’ wheels come off completely.

Bet Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Jacksonville Jaguars