NHL Betting Preview: Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators

Added on Oct 16, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NHL

NHL betting action continues on Saturday and we’ll head down south to Music City, USA as the Nashville Predators host the Washington Capitals. Most of the attention of the local sports fans and media will be fixated on college football but this should be a very compelling matchup between the high scoring Caps and the defensively tenacious Preds.

Washington Capitals at Nashville Predators
October 16, 2010 5:05 PM Pacific

Both teams are off to a good start this season–after dropping their opener at Atlanta, Washington has won three straight to enter this contest at 3-1. Nashville is 3-0 on the season with a pair of home wins against Anaheim and a highly underrated St. Louis team and a very solid road victory at Chicago. This is only Washington’s 2nd road game of the season and despite their winning record they’re having to work hard. With the exception of a 7-2 rout of New Jersey they’ve won their other two games by a single goal and have looked much stronger on the defensive end. This hasn’t stopped the mainstream media from hysterically wondering ‘What is wrong with the Caps?’ but in our estimation their ability to win close games and not needing their offense to score 5+ a night is a positive rather than a negative development.

Having said that, it’s not necessarily the Caps preferred tempo but it is one at which the Nashville Predators excel. Despite the Caps’ overall success during the past few years they’re only 18-18 L3 years in non-conference games for a loss of -11.8 units. Obviously Washington is one of the biggest ‘public’ teams in hockey so they’re seldom a good betting investment–despite a 117-72 mark in all games L3 years they’ve barely made a profit at all for their ‘financial backers’ (+0.2 units). Nashville, meanwhile, is only 91-81 L3 years but that translates into a profit of +18.6 units. Against teams with winning records they’ve posted a +8.7 unit profit in that timeframe. It’s not a stretch to suggest that on ‘any given night’ the Caps are overvalued and the Preds undervalued. The numbers sure reflect that.

Obviously Washington has the far superior offense and in terms of individual talent there’s likely no one on the planet that can touch Alex Ovechkin. To his credit, Ovechkin is becoming a much better rounded hockey player–he’s always played decent defense and is underrated for his toughness. He’s not afraid to throw his 6’2″ 230 pound frame around. There’s few players as dangerous or exciting to watch as Ovechkin in the open ice, but he’s starting to show a better head for the game and he’s developing the sort of intuition of where to position himself in traffic–the precise qualities that make Wayne Gretzky such a feared scorer. That being said, they’re in a game here against a team that plays ‘ugly’ hockey better than they do. Nashville has a better defense and is stronger and more consistent in net with Pekka Rinne. Ultimately, we like the value with the hometown Preds at an underdog price.

Bet Nashville Predators +125 over Washington Capitals