NFL Betting Previews: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Added on Oct 15, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

One of the more anticipated games on this weekend’s NFL betting slate is a rematch of last year’s playoff encounter between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. The Ravens eliminated the Pats from the postseason in an embarrassing and completely non-competitive rout on New England’s home field. Both teams have played well to this point of the season–Baltimore currently leads the AFC Central with a 4-1 record while the Pats are in second place in the AFC East with a 3-1 mark.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
October 17, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

The Patriots are looking to exact some revenge for the beating that Baltimore gave them during the 2009 playoffs. The Ravens dominated New England at home en route to a 33-14 win in which the Pats were never competitive. For the Ravens, its been ‘business as usual’ in 2010—they’re a team that wants to dominate on defense and grind out yards with a strong rushing game on offense. So far, the defense has been very good. The Ravens are currently ranked #4 in scoring defense at 14.4 points per game and #2 in passing defense. They don’t have a very productive offense, but quarterback Joe Flacco is steady if not spectacular and the running game remains solid.

New England should have wide receiver Deion Branch in the lineup for this game–he was ‘re-acquired’ earlier this week from the Seattle Seahawks and should help take up the slack caused by the loss of Randy Moss. Coach Bill Belichick was vague when questioned about Branch’s status earlier this week but there’s every indication that he’ll be ready to go. The Patriots lack the playmaking depth on offense of past years and the defense isn’t as good but with Tom Brady in good form they’re always a dangerous opponent.

From a pointspread standpoint, Baltimore has been one of the best performing underdogs in the NFL in recent years. The Ravens are 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog, 12-8 ATS over the past three years and most impressively 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or less. New England’s pointspread record is right around the breakeven mark in every significant situational category though they have won 5 of the last 6 games against the Ravens going 4-2 against the spread including 3 of 4 SU/ATS at home.

‘Revenge’ is an overused concept among sports handicappers, but it does look to be applicable here. The Ravens’ offense has struggled on the road averaging only 12.3 PPG in three games. This is Baltimore’s fourth road game in six weeks while the Patriots coming off a bye week. The big factor could be the extra week of preparation they had before this big ‘revenge’ spot. We have to respect Bill Belichick’s ability to come up with a winning strategy with two full weeks to prepare and look for New England to win and cover laying less than a FG.

Bet New England Patriots -2′ over Baltimore Ravens