NFL Betting Previews: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills

Added on Oct 10, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

A couple of the less attractive teams in the NFL go at it in upstate New York on Sunday as the Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars looking for their first win of the year. Buffalo was routed by the NY Jets in their last game, while the Jaguars upset the Indianapolis Colts at home on a 59 yard field goal as time expired.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
October 10, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

The Jaguars may be 2-2 while the Bills are winless, but realistically Jacksonville isn’t a much better team than Buffalo–if at all. Their defense is a joke and they haven’t allowed fewer than 267 yards passing this season. Their rushing numbers are decent, but that could be due to scheduling (playing a lot of pass oriented opponents early) or more likely due to the fact that their secondary is so vulnerable teams don’t feel a need to establish the run. Jags’ running back Maurice Jones-Drew is a good one, but he’s not been particularly impressive in the early going and he’s essentially the only offensive weapon they have. David Garrard has been in horrible form to the point where they signed Bills’ castoff Trent Edwards as an ‘insurance policy’.

Strong technical situation here with Buffalo–betting ON 0-4 teams has historically been a strong ATS position and its gone 12-6 in the last five years. Jacksonville looked awful in their only road game so far this year as they lost 38-13 at San Diego. Jags have been a brutal pointspread team of late and particularly away from home–Jacksonville is on a 11-25 ATS run since 2008 and is 5-12 SU/6-11 ATS on the road in that timeframe. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 both SU and ATS as a road dog of 3 or less, and they’re on a frightful 3-9 SU/1-11 ATS run after a division game. With an upset of the Colts they become even more prone to a letdown here. In all fairness, the Bills aren’t a very good ATS team at home (5-10 ATS since 2008) but at this price all we need them to do is win outright. Most of the money is coming in on Jacksonville, so this line could move in our favor by gametime.

Bet Buffalo Bills -1 over Jacksonville Jaguars