NFL Betting Preview: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Added on Oct 02, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Green Bay Packers will try to bounce back from their tough loss to the Chicago Bears as they take on the Detroit Lions at home on Sunday. Despite an 0-3 SU record the Lions are 1.5 points shy of being a perfect 3-0 ATS this year with their only non-cover last week at Minnesota where they lost by 14 as +13 underdogs.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
October 3, 2010 10:00 AM Pacific

We’ve used the Lions a couple of times this year and despite not having the talent level of most of their opponents we’ve been pleased with their effort week in and week out which is reflected in their 2-1 ATS record that was very close to being 3-0. As the SU losses mount the public will move away from this team even more giving us good value opportunities down the road. Having said that, this isn’t a good matchup or a good scheduling spot for a play on the Lions. Had the Packers won at Chicago last week this might have been a potential ‘flat spot’ with a road game at Washington on deck. Off a loss, however, it makes it a situation where the Lions will have the Packers’ full focus.

Given the considerable ability of Aaron Rodgers and the vulnerability of the Detroit secondary, that’s bad news. Green Bay has dominated this series both SU and ATS dating back to the Brett Favre era. Overall, the Packers are on a 29-9 SU run since 1992 with a 21-15 ATS record in those games. At home, the Packers have won an amazing 19 straight meetings SU posting a 13-4-2 record against the number. They’re 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS since Aaron Rodgers became quarterback, with the only cover being the game where Detroit was trying to avoid going 0-16. That makes it a 7-1 ATS run for Green Bay overall with a 3-1 ATS run at home. Oddly enough, this may even be a ‘lookahead spot’ for Detroit–they’ve got a game they could actually win next week, hosting St. Louis. It’s never easy to get involved at a price this high, but given the Packers’ matchup advantage and history of dominance that’s the only way to play it.

Bet Green Bay Packers -14 over Detroit Lions