Free Betting Picks: UFC 119

Added on Sep 25, 2010 by Bill Jackson in

UFC & MMA

Stacked with competitive matchups from top to bottom, UFC 119 takes place tomorrow night. Though there is no title or even potential title shot on the line, each bout is intriguing enough to promise a good night of action. And what makes for sweeter action than a few wagers on the most unpredictable sport in the world. Here is how the main card breaks down to me.

Matt Mitrione vs. Joey Beltran

Though neither fighter is world class or all that experienced, Mitrione is a talented athlete and appears to be a fast learner. Say what you will about Kimbo Slice, but stopping him is a credible win for Mitrione, especially so early in his career. Look for this fight to be a brawl and Mitrione to be landing the harder more accurate shots. At -155, a straight bet on Mitrione is easy money.

CB Dollaway vs. Joe Doerkson

Dollaway is supposed to win this fight but I have very little faith in his submission defense after losing to Amir Sodallah’s armbar twice in a row. Doerkson could pull this one out but I wouldn’t waste my time with this one.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Melvin Guillard

This is going to be a shootout. Both fighters have tremendous power and love to throw bombs. Guillard is the favorite because he is more athletic, but other than that it is an even fight. Guillard is listed at about -140 and that seems about right. A bet on either of these two would be acceptable, but I’m going with Stephens. Guillard has looked to have a weak mental game and Stephens never loses faith. A close fight that goes to the judges with Stephens edging out Guillard with a late rally. Straight bet on Stephens at +130.

Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham

There is a lot of hype surrounding Evan Dunham right now and though I won’t say it is totally undeserved, people need to calm down about him. He still has plenty to prove while Sherk is a bona fide former champ that has only lost to the absolute elite. I would pick Sherk in a heartbeat if he wasn’t coming off such a long layoff, but since he has been out of action for so long, you never know how he will perform. Dunham is listed at -210 which seems about right considering the circumstance. If Sherk looks like himself, I give him a very good chance, but layoffs are never kind in this sport and I think that will make the difference.

Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle

This fight is another example of how competitive all of Saturday’s matchups truly are. They fought one of the more uneventful bouts in the finale of the fourth season of The Ultimate Fighter with Serra winning a split decision. Since then, Serra has won and lost the welterweight title and Lytle has turned into an all-action mad man that collects a bonus check every time he fights. I think Lytle is as motivated for this fight as anyone could be and he will win every round. The odds have him listed at -140, making this a great opportunity for a sizable straight bet.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader

Nogueira didn’t look like the world beater that many think he is in his last fight against late replacement Jason Brilz. Bader has all the skills of Brilz, plus some. If the fight stays on the feet, Nogueira will get the better of it. If it goes to the ground, Bader could very well control Nogueira for three rounds. I realize how talented Nogueira is, but I’m forced to remind myself that his epic war with Shogun was over five years ago and things change. The youth of Bader outweighs the experience of Nogueira in this one. A straight bet on Bader at -185 makes a lot of sense.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Frank Mir

Very few people are giving Mirko a chance in this bout and I have to say that they are all out of their minds. Mir is a talented athlete but it is no secret he doesn’t like to get hit. Mir will want to take the fight down but Mirko won’t let him and it will be a striking match. I predict an early straight left hand to stun Mir and Cro Cop to finish him off soon after. Straight bet on Mirko at +200 should fill the pockets a bit.