NFL Betting Preview: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Added on Sep 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The New York Jets are off a big win over the New England Patriots to even their 2010 record at 1-1 and now head to South Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins. Miami is a surprise 2-0 after season opening wins over Minnesota and Buffalo. Miami is on a three game SU/ATS winning streak in the series and will try to keep that run intact in this nationally televised Sunday Night Football game.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
September 26, 2010–5:20 PM Pacific

The Jets have some injury issues on defense as they head to Miami– nose guard Chris Jenkins is out for the year and he’s one of the team’s best run defenders. They must also play this week without the services of all world safety Darrelle Revis. Revis re-aggravated his injured hamstring in last Sunday’s win against the New England Patriots and has been ruled out for this game by head coach Rex Ryan. They’ll face a Miami Dolphins team that has won their first two games on the road and is making their 2010 home debut. New York will be looking to end a three game Miami winning streak in the series, with the Dolphins winning all three games outright as underdogs. While Miami has won three straight outright in the series, the Jets have covered 6 of the last 7 meetings between the teams in South Florida.

Assuming that Revis’ injury isn’t a long term problem (MRI tests have indicated a strain), the Jets are fortunate in that he’s missing a game against the Dolphins. Miami lis a one dimensional rushing team, and Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are as good as any pair of running backs in the NFL. Quarterback Chad Henne has become a solid starter in many areas but still isn’t a legitimate downfield passing threat. Miami brought in big play wide receiver Brandon Marshall hoping to stretch the field, but he really hasn’t done much to date.

And when you try to run on the Jets you’re playing to their strength—they had the best total defense and best rushing defense in the NFL last season. They’ll miss Jenkins, but they’ve got a lot of depth on this side of the ball and we look for them to be among the leaders in rushing defense once again. In theory, the secondary would be their most vulnerable spot and particularly with Revis on the sideline but we’re not sold on Henne’s ability to take advantage. Besides, even though Revis is arguably the best man to man pass coverage specialist in the league the rest of the secondary is very solid in zone coverage schemes.

On offense, the Jets were the top rushing offense in the NFL last season and despite some personnel changes New York is still very good at running the football. This has allowed the team to bring Mark Sanchez along slowly and he’s able to work within the team’s offensive framework and not be put in position where it becomes necessary to win games on his own.

Last season the Jets had a tendency to be overly aggressive against Miami’s running attack and were burnt for big plays out of the ‘Wildcat’ formation. We expect them to be more patient on defense this time around, and in theory it’s hard to argue with a team that plays defense and runs the ball well on offense getting points on the road. The Jets win this one outright.

Bet New York Jets +1′ over Miami Dolphins