MLB Betting Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Added on Sep 10, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action continues Friday night in the National League where the Atlanta Braves are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals for the second of a crucial four game set. Atlanta lost the opening game of the series to drop a full game behind first place Philadelphia in the NL East. The Cardinals managed to pick up a game on the NL Central leading Cincinnati Reds with the victory, but remain five games off the pace.

St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter) at Atlanta Braves (Minor)
September 10, 2010–4:35 PM Pacific

St. Louis clobbered the Braves in the opening game of this series on Thursday night, costing us a loss on the play in the process. Cards’ ace Chris Carpenter gets the start on Friday and that’s largely responsible for them being favored in the game. In baseball handicapping, its essential to not get too fixated on the starting pitcher matchups and, in particular, do the ‘due diligence’ any time you’re being asked to lay a big price with a ‘name’ pitcher. Carpenter has been solid this year, with a 15-5 record and a 2.90 ERA but let’s look beneath these glossy stats. As we discussed yesterday, the Cards have lost a ton of money for bettors in 2010 and particularly on the road. Overall, St. Louis has lost -20.3 units in 2010 and on the road they’re 30-41 -19.7 units. Like the rest of his team, Carpenter is a much stronger pitcher at home–his ERA is still good at 3.15 but St. Louis has only won 7 of his 13 starts for a net loss of -1.1 units.

Lefthander Mike Minor gets the call for Atlanta, and despite a 3-0 record he’s got a hefty 5.33 ERA. Looking at his L3 starts, his ERA has ballooned to 6.60 in that span. We’ll once again return to a concept we discussed yesterday–Atlanta is a different team at Turner Field than they are on the road. On the road, the Braves are 31-41 -15 units. At home, Atlanta has one of the best home records in baseball at 49-20 +17.9 units. Not surprisingly, Minor has also been a much better pitcher at Turner Field–at home he’s 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA. And remember his 6.60 ERA in his last three starts? Only one of those was at home and in that start he pitched five strong innings against the New York Mets allowing 2 ER.

So even though we’ve got one of the top guys in the Cards rotation going against a young southpaw for Atlanta, that doesn’t negate the overall home/away tendencies of the teams involved. Atlanta has made money at home, St. Louis has lost money on the road. Cards are also 23-25 against lefthanders this year for a loss of -14.4 units. We’ll back the Braves here and get one of the best home teams in baseball at an underdog price.

Bet Atlanta (Minor) +125 over St. Louis (Carpenter)