MLB Betting Preview: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Added on Sep 02, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

We served up a play on the Atlanta Braves/New York Mets game earlier and here’s another nice looking MLB betting position in Thursday action. This time we’ll head to the American League where the Minnesota Twins will host the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have opened up a 4 game lead over the Chicago White Sox atop the AL Central, while Detroit is well off the pace 12 games back.

Detroit Tigers (Verlander) at Minnesota Twins (Baker)
September 2, 2010—5:10 PM Pacific

Detroit starts Justin Verlander here and while he’s a solid pitcher we’re of the option that it just gives us a better price on the home side. Tigers are all but eliminated from the playoff hunt, and have lost five of their last seven games including the first two in this series. Verlander has pitched well lately (2.57 ERA in his last three starts) but Detroit lost two of those games—both on the road—due to shoddy run support. Detroit scored only 2 runs per game for Verlander in losses at New York and Toronto, and that’s not going to get it done against a quality opponent. On the road this season, Verlander has a 4.53 ERA and Detroit has lost 8 of his 14 starts.

Tigers have struggled on the road all season long. They’re solid at home (43-25) but a woeful 23-43 -17 units away from the Motor City. They’ve struggled against teams with winning records all season (29-41 -7.4 units) and while some teams relish the ‘spoiler’ role in the second half Detroit’s second half numbers against winning teams are even worse (14-24 -7.6 units). They’re 25-29 -9 units against AL Central opponents and 45-51 -9.3 units overall against RHP. On the road against right handers, they’re even worse—14-30 for a -14.65 unit loss.

Minnesota continues to take care of business winning five of their last six. They’ve been excellent at home with a 42-22 record for +8.5 units and they’ve taken advantage of sub-.500 opponents down the stretch, posting a 18-8 +6.2 unit record against teams with losing records in the second half of the season. Scott Baker has been very sharp in his recent outings with a 2.94 ERA in his L3 games—all Minnesota wins. For the season, he’s been money in the bank at home with a 3.86 ERA and the Twins have won 9 of his 13 assignments at Target Field.

Twins have dominated Detroit in their own park—this year they’re 7-1 +5.3 units against the Tigers at home and their 3 year record is 21-6 +12 units. We’re getting a better team with an underrated pitcher and a picture perfect home/away tendency situation at a very reasonable price.

Bet Minnesota (Baker) -120 over Detroit (Verlander)