MLB Betting Free Picks: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Added on Aug 31, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting opportunities abound in the National League today, and we’ll head to Cincinnati where the Reds are hosting the Milwaukee Brewers. Cincinnati taking advantage of the St. Louis Cardinals’ late season swoon to pull 6 games clear of first place in the NL Central. Brewers are in third place, but the fact that they’re 14 games back of the division leading reds doesn’t say much about the rest of the division.

Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) at Cincinnati Reds (Harang)
August 31, 2010—4:10 PM Pacific

Cincinnati playing good baseball at the moment and are putting their metaphorical foot on the throat of the Cards looking to put the division title out of reach. Reds have won 6 of their last 10 and most impressive is the fact that their record at home (39-27) is essentially the same as on the road (37-28). They’ve got the best offense in the National League, which compensates for a decidedly mediocre pitching rotation.

We generally like Milwaukee right hander Yovani Gallardo, but he’s become the darling of baseball bettors and as a result somewhat overvalued. He’s got a good YTD ERA (3.50) which is even better on the road (2.33) but it hasn’t translated into victories. The Brewers are 13-12 overall in Gallardo’s 2010 starts for a -2.4 unit loss, and only 6-6 -0.6 units on the road. He’s gotten hammered like a frat boy on a weekend bender in Juarez during his last few starts—in his last 3 outings he’s given up 20 earned runs for a 8.64 ERA in that span.

Aaron Harang will never be mistaken for Greg Maddux and enters this game with a 5.02 ERA. He’s been marginally better at home, where has a 4.74 ERA and the Reds have won 6 of his 11 assignments at the Great American Ballpark for a +1.4 unit profit. He’s been even better in his last three outings with a 3.26 ERA. With Gallardo not in top form, however, the pitching matchup becomes something of a wash.

That leaves us with an opportunity to take the better team on their home field at a ‘pick’em’ or better price. Reds have manhandled NL Central opponents this year (37-22 +14.3 units) and have had no trouble with the Brewers (5-1, 3-0 in Cincy). We look for them to keep up their strong place and dominance of Milwaukee as they look to extend their division lead.

Bet Cincinnati (Harang) +100 over Milwaukee (Gallardo)