MLB Betting Free Picks: Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Added on Aug 30, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

A number of attractive baseball betting propositions on Monday’s National League card, and we’ll take a look at a NL Central battle between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds have taken advantage of a late season swoon by the St. Louis Cardinals to put a five game margin between themselves and their nearest competitors. The Brewers are treading water in third place, pretty much as they have all season long.

Milwaukee Brewers (Wolf) at Cincinnati Reds (Bailey)
August 30, 2010—4:10 PM Pacific

The Reds are in good position to put even more daylight between them and the rest of the division in this three game set against the Milwaukee Brewers. Reds enter this game having won 6 of their last 10 and 8 of 12. The Brewers have also won six of their last 10, but are still 13 games out of first place and are realistically out of the hunt. Brewers have turned a profit on the road this year overall (29-34 +2.6 units) but have not done well in this price range (+125 to +150 underdog) with a 6-12 -4 record on the season.

Cincinnati has been very profitable at home this year (39-27 +6.7 units) and even more profitable in several situational roles that apply in this game. Against division opponents they’re 36-22 +13.3 units and they’ve really taken care of business against teams with losing records—against sub-500 opponents they’re 47-22 +21.4 units. They haven’t slipped in this spot in the second half of the season at 18-6 +10.6 units. They’ve also turned a profit against left handed pitching at 25-18 +5.4 units.

Neither pitcher in this matchup is overly dominant based on their year to date numbers. Randy Wolf has a 4.74 ERA on the year, and the Brewers have won 14 of his 27 starts with 7 of 13 wins in his road assignments. Homer Bailey has a 4.83 ERA overall, but has been very good as a wagering investment—Reds have won 8 of his 12 starts overall including 5 of 6 at home. With the Reds so strong at home and having manhandled the Brewers in head to head play this season (4-1, 2-0 at home) we’ll lay the price with Cincinnati in this matchup.

Bet Cincinnati (Bailey)-155 over Milwaukee (Wolf)