UFC 118: Free Betting Picks

Added on Aug 28, 2010 by Bill Jackson in

UFC & MMA

We are just hours from the first ever UFC event in Boston, Massachusetts and what better way to kill the time than making some more bets to increase the juice. I know that’s what I’m doing. Betting on the undercard is of course fun as well, but when you’re not actually watching the fights you have money on, you don’t get quite the same effect. For me, it’s all about the juice, so I will just concentrate on the main card here.

First fight of the night is a lock in my mind. I honestly don’t see how Marcus Davis can get a win here. Sure, he is bigger, stronger, and fighting near his hometown, but it won’t be enough. He is 37-years old, lost two of his last three with the one win coming over the human light switch Jonathan Goulet, and frankly, he was never really too good to begin with. Nate Diaz is about a -220 favorite and that is money in the bank. Diaz looked tremendous in his welterweight debut against Rory Markham and is one of the more underrated fighters in the organization. He is dangerous anywhere the fight goes, while the only way Davis can win is by landing a big shot. Save this one for the parlay.

Next up is a clash between the top two contenders in the lightweight division (not counting Penn). Kenny Florian takes on undefeated Gray Maynard with the winner getting a title shot against the winner of the main event. Honestly, this is a tough fight to predict, but I really have a hard time betting against Florian at this point. He has looked tremendous in his last two fights and possesses such a vast array of tools that Maynard has never experienced. Maynard is strong and talented and could always possibly just hold Florian down for three rounds and eek out a decision, but I think after Florian’s loss to Sean Sherk, he has worked on his wrestling, not to mention he has an exceptional ground game. Florian is the smarter fighter with the bigger tool-kit, that makes the difference for me. Straight bet on Florian at -160, and I would make it sizable to get that juice running.

Demian Maia is facing Mario Miranda in a fight that nobody particularly cares about. Miranda had fought only once in the UFC in a fight barely anybody has seen at this point. It is the only fight I have seen Miranda in, so I have no prediction for this fight. Maia is likely going to outclass him, but I picked Bobby Lashley to run over Chad Griggs last week without having seen enough of Griggs, so I will not be making that mistake again soon. Just avoid this one.

In the co-main event, boxing great James Toney takes on UFC legend Randy Couture in the biggest side-show match since Couture’s last fight. Everyone will tell you to bet whatever you can on Couture because Toney has no chance in his wildest dreams. While I would agree that Toney’s chances are incredibly slim, they are still there. Toney can catch Randy. Likely he won’t, but it could happen. We have never seen a boxer as elite as Toney in MMA, so we really don’t know what could happen. Best to stay away from this, especially since the odds are so lopsided anyway.

In the main event, new champion Frankie Edgar attempts to defend the title against the man he took the title from, B.J Penn. Really, I don’t think Penn lost the first fight, and I really don’t think he will lose tonight. Penn comes in at -350 and he deserves to be every cent of the favorite. Penn is one of the greatest fighters of all time and tonight he will prove it once again. Edgar is a tremendous fighter, but he can’t hurt Penn and Penn will not be content to just chase Edgar and land the occasional hard jabs and hooks. Looks for Penn to take this fight down in the second round, and do some damage before submitting Edgar. This is a motivated Penn, and that usually means an impressive Penn. Cap your parlay with this one.

Before the pay-per-view begins, Spike TV will be showing two of the prelim fights for free. The first will be Andre Winner against nick Lentz. This is certainly a toss up fight, but Winner should probably be a slightly bigger favorite than -130, so this seems like a perfect opportunity to make a small bet to get the juices flowing early. Betting on either fighter should make for a good time. In the second bout on Spike TV, former TUF competitors Joe Lauzon and Gabe Ruediger will make a spirited clash of lightweights that need a win in the UFC. Ruediger is not as bad as people might assume from his appearance on the reality show, but Lauzon is on a higher level. I see Luazon winning by submission in the second round, and this is a good addition to our parlay.

Suggested Bets:

Good sized bet on Florian. This is the kind of fight where it will be fun whoever you bet on, just don’t make it too small. Perfect opportunity to get your juices flowing on fight night.

Parlay bet on Lauzon, Diaz, and Penn winning. You will get 2 to 1 on this bet, not to mention it will make the whole show a lot more exciting. I feel great about this parlay and plan to make a big bet here.