NFL Preseason Betting Free Picks: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Added on Aug 28, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Week Three of the NFL preseason is in full swing, and we’ll take a look at a Saturday night game between the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is 2-1 SU and ATS, but the extra game under their belt hasn’t helped the first string offense—they’ve scored only a single TD this preseason. Houston is 0-2 SU and ATS, and is off a blowout loss by 18 points against New Orleans. The Texans always take the games against their in-state rival seriously, so don’t be surprised to see them come out swinging here despite last week’s substandard showing. This game will be televised nationally on CBS in the USA.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
August 28 5:00 PM Pacific

A bunch of contradictory trends and angles pointing to each side of this game, starting with one we’ve talked about earlier this week—Houston is an 0-2 team coming off a 14+ point loss, which is a 63.6% pointspread winner. On the other hand, Houston has been an awful preseason favorite—they’re now 1-8 SU and ATS when laying points. They’ve not shown a lot of ‘bounce back’ after a substandard effort, with a 2-6 ATS record after a double digit SU preseason loss. The Cowboys are also a 1-6 ATS play as a dog against an opponent off of a double digit straight up loss.

Despite the fact that Houston always takes preseason meetings with Dallas more seriously (2-0 ATS) we think a better position is on the total in this contest. Both teams will play their first team offense for most of the game and particularly for Dallas putting points on the board is a priority. The Cowboys have been emphasizing their QB’s getting rid of the ball early in the first two games as they work out the kinks in their offensive line. In this game, look for the Cowboys to throw the ball downfield much more frequently. Houston’s Matt Schaub will also see considerable playing time, and that should get the Texans’ offense moving.

Both teams will play this closer to a regular season game than any contest so far, and we expect both offense to put up points. The total for this game opened at 38’ and is up to 41 or 41’. We have to agree with the money move in this one, and note that the last two preseason matchups between Houston and Dallas saw 45 and 44 points scored. Dallas will open things up on offense tonight, and with Houston much improved since the previous meeting we look for tonight’s game to be in the high 40’s or low 50’s making the Over the play.

Bet Dallas/Houston Over 41