MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs

Added on Aug 21, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Saturday in the National League where the Chicago Cubs continue their weekend series with the Atlanta Braves. Cubs off of a 4 game sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres and lost the opening game of the set against Atlanta on Friday. Atlanta maintains their 2.5 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Cubs sunk even deeper below the .500 mark.

ATLANTA BRAVES (HANSON) AT CHICAGO CUBS (GORZELANNY) 1:10 PM PACIFIC

All things being equal, the Atlanta Braves aren’t a very good road team. They have improved over the course of the season, but they’re just 28-33 -7 units away from Turner Field. They’ve been able to stay atop the division this year due to the best home record in baseball (44-17). They’re also fortunate in that the second place Phillies have an essentially identical home/road profile. Despite their YTD road struggles we expect them to take care of business here–they’ve got a tight divisional race to deal with and the Braves are 33-18 +7.2 units against teams with losing records this season.

Against the Cubs at home, however, there’s no other way to play than against them. They’ve lost -32.6 units overall in 2010 and it’s not like they’re any better at home than on the road. As we’ve discussed on a number of occasions Chicago is always overvalued at home. For some reason, the public loves betting the Cubs at Wrigley Field despite their mediocre record. This makes no sense whatsoever, but as long as it gives us so many great value opportunities hopefully they’ll keep doing it. This year Chicago is 28-37 at home for a -20.3 unit loss. And every time I look at the Cubs’ betting statistics I’m amazed by this fact–since 1997 Chicago is 587-541 at home and despite being 46 games over .500 that translates to a -137.3 unit loss!

Braves aren’t great against left handed pitching (22-21 -4.9 units), but that’s nothing compared to the way Chicago has burnt money against right handers– Cubs are 32-29 -21.3 units against right handers this year. Besides, it’s not like Tom Gorzelanny is the second coming of Sandy Koufax. Gorzelanny has a respectable 3.99 ERA, but the Cubs have lost 12 of his 18 2010 starts including 7 of 10 at home. Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson has a solid 3.41 ERA and Atlanta has won 8 of his 12 starts on the road. He’s been extremely sharp in his last three outings, giving up a total of 10 hits and 2 earned runs for a 0.86 ERA in that stretch. Braves have won 8 of their L10 games, Cubs have lost 8 of their last 10. With the Phillies hosting Washington this weekend there’s a very good chance of a Philly sweep so the Braves need to take advantage of their weak opponent to maintain their advantage in the NL East.

PLAY ATLANTA (HANSON) -155 OVER CHICAGO CUBS (GORZELANNY)