MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers

Added on Aug 20, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting action on Friday in the National League where the San Diego Padres head to Milwaukee for a weekend series with the Brewers. Padres off of a 4 game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, and have now opened a 6 game lead over San Francisco in the NL West. Milwaukee is well off the pace in the NL Central, 13.5 games out of first.

San Diego Padres (LeBlanc) at Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo)
August 20, 2010—5:10 PM Pacific

San Diego in exceptional form right now, winning 9 of their last 10 games. They’ve made a ton of money for bettors overall in 2010 (73-48 +29.2 units) and have also done well on the road (37-26 +18.1 units). In tonight’s game they’re underdogs against a Milwaukee team that has lost money overall (57-65 -7.4 units) and at home (28-31 -10 units).

Milwaukee is the favorite here as they’ll start the very talented Yovani Gallardo with his solid 2.97 ERA. Despite this strong ERA, Gallardo hasn’t been a particularly good betting proposition this year. The Brewers are only 12-11 in his starts this season for a -1.7 unit loss. At home, they’re 6-5 for a -1.1 unit loss. Wade LeBlanc doesn’t have quite as impressive numbers with a 3.46 ERA, though San Diego has won 12 of his 22 starts.

We might have some interest in Milwaukee if they were particularly strong against left handed pitching, but they’re just 17-22 -6.2 units against southpaws. In terms of their recent form, they’re 5-5 in their last 10 games—basically treading water as they have all season long. Gallardo is definitely a good pitcher, but the W/L results just aren’t there and the Padres have cleaned up against right-handers this season (50-36 +16.3 units).

In this matchup, we just can’t pass up the red hot Padres at an underdog price. They’re the better team and Gallardo’s performance hasn’t been dominant enough, nor has the Brewers ‘ performance as a team good enough, to negate that simple fact. Padres have taken care of business against teams with losing records this year—35-16 +17 units.

Bet San Diego (LeBlanc) +130 over Milwaukee (Gallardo)