MLB Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks

Added on Aug 19, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Plenty of nighttime baseball action on the docket for Thursday, and we’ll take a look in the National League where the Cincinnati Reds play out in the desert against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Reds have won the first two games of this series, and will look for the sweep tonight. Cincinnati has won five straight and is now 3 games up on St. Louis in the NL Central due to the Cardinals 4 game losing streak. Arizona is just playing out the string, 26 games out of first place in the NL West.

Cincinnati Reds (Wood) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Saunders)
August 19, 2010–6:40 PM Pacific

Cincinnati can be a nerve wracking team to bet on since their pitching isn’t great. They have a tendency to let teams back into games, and that was the case last night. Reds gave up a lead, allowed Arizona to tie the game and went to the 9^th inning tied. At that point, the teams reverted to their typical form. The Reds powerful offense came alive and pummeled the Diamondbacks’ hapless bullpen to produce a final score of 11-7.

Reds will send Travis Wood to the hill, and he’s looked very good since moving into the starting rotation. Wood has a 2.65 ERA and Cincy has won 6 of his 8 starts including 6 of 7 on the road. Arizona starts Joe Saunders here, and the lefthander has been unimpressive this year with a 4.48 ERA and his team has lost 14 of his 24 starts. Saunders’ recent form is pretty much the same as his YTD form, with a 4.29 ERA. What’s troubling about that stat is it came against three of the lighest hitting teams in the NL, facing San Diego and Washington twice.

There’s nothing ‘light hitting’ about the Cincinnati offense. The Reds lead the NL with a team batting average 8 points higher than the Brewers at .271 and score a NL best 4.9 runs per game. Cincy has cleaned up on the road this year with a 33-25 mark for 10.1 units of profit. They’ve also owned this series of late, winning 11 of the last 14 meetings (+9.2 units) including 7 of 8 in Arizona (+7.3 units). Reds have shown a profit against lefthanders this year (albeit a small one) and we don’t expect Saunders to give them trouble with his recent form. Arizona has the worst team ERA in Major League Baseball (5.12) and a bullpen ERA of 6.11. D-backs have lost money against left handers this year (-6.6 units) and in a matchup against the best offense in the NL against the worst pitching staff we’ll gladly take the Reds at a reasonable price.

Bet Cincinnati (Wood) -125 over Arizona (Saunders)