NFL Preseason Betting Free Picks: Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

Added on Aug 18, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Week two of the NFL preseason looks to present quite a few solid betting situations and we like a totals position in Saturday’s contest between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville opened the preseason with a loss/cover on the road against Philadelphia while Miami outlasted Tampa Bay in a defensive battle.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
August 21, 4:30 PM Pacific

Trends are one of the most overrated and misused concepts in sports betting. More often than not they end up being all but meaningless from a statistical standpoint with a coincidental relationship to the outcome of a sporting event as opposed to a strong correlation. Trends can be effective when they’re the starting point for research into their underlying context—in other words, trying to understand *why* certain trends have occurred is often more valuable than the trend itself.

After their wild 28-27 road loss to Philadelphia this past weekend Jacksonville is on a 15-6 preseason run to the Over during Jack Del Rio’s coaching tenure. For whatever reason, the usually conservative Del Rio likes to open up the offense during the preseason which has produced that strong Over bias. In this particular matchup, the Over could be even stronger than usual for a confluence of reasons. In addition to the aforementioned preseason offensive tendency, Jacksonville’s defense just isn’t very good at this point and made a Philadelphia offense trying to revamp itself following the departure of Donovan McNabb look a lot better than it really is. Del Rio isn’t very happy with the defense, but has conceded that it’s a work in progress and that improvement won’t happen overnight.

At first glance Miami would suggest an Under play due to their 10-7 victory against Tampa Bay last weekend, but we’re of the opinion that they’ll look to put some points on the board against the porous Jags’ defense. The Bucs’ game was played in horrible weather conditions with a driving rain and wind, and that obviously took its toll on the scoring. Brandon Marshall and the other Dolphins receivers dropped a number of balls they should have caught. More significantly, however, is the fact that the Miami first team offense performed horribly and now wants to set things right. Consider these comments from QB Chad Henne (emphasis added):

“We need to be more efficient. The biggest thing is being more concentrated in what we have to get done, and taking advantage of each opportunity.”

The Dolphins’ defense played well against a far from intimidating Tampa Bay offense, but that may have set up this game for something of a ‘statement’ by the other side of the ball. Henne’s comments again:

“We’ll get ‘em the next time. I think every time we step out there on the field, we want to dominate. We want to win as an offense. We didn’t get it done with the first team.”

Jacksonville will come out looking to play their typical wide open preseason offense, and their vulnerable defense will give Miami to retaliate in kind. This one should have a scoreline similar to the Phily/Jacksonville game and sail over the posted total of 36. Miami’s offense is looking to ‘take advantage of opportunities’ and they’ll get plenty of them here.

Bet Jacksonville/Miami Over 36