NFL Season Preview: AFC South

Added on Aug 16, 2010 by Eric Galko in

NFL

In the last game of the 2009-2010 season, the division’s best team and the division’s best quarterback lost the game on one pass attempt that was misfired and landed in Tracy Porter of the Saints hands.

Now the Colts, losers of the previous Super Bowl, look to redeem their disappointing end to their season, while the Texans look to prove the hype correct and lead a fantastic offense to the post-season, the Titans look to push to the playoffs behind the leagues fastest and arguably top running back, and the Jaguars look to get out from the bottom of the division.

Last Year’s Final Standings
Indianapolis Colts – 14-2
Houston Texans – 9-7
Tennessee Titans – 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars - 7-9

Top Newcomers:
Aaron Kampman to Jacksonville
The former Green Bay Packer will be continuing his switch from 4-3 defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker as he migrates south to Jacksonville. Kampman played fairly well as an outside linebacker last year with Green Bay, but did look out of place at times and is a much better fit for the 4-3.

With the Jaguars running a hybrid 3-4 and 4-3 defense and with the versatility of Kampman to be effective in both, they can make that transition well until they decide one which defense will be their “base” defense.

Will Witherspoon to Tennessee
The Titans let go of Keith Bulluck this off-season, who has been a staple of this defense even more than Albert Haynesworth was when he was a Titan. Bulluck will be sorely missed in Tennessee and will be taking his talents to New York with the Giants.

In an effort to replace him in the short term, until their young guys like Gerald McRath and rookie Rennie Curran are ready to step in, the Titans signed Will Witherspoon, a veteran linebacker who has bounced around the league since leaving Carolina six years ago. He’s still a capable starter, but likely will be battling for his job by season’s end.

Tyson Alualu, Derrick Morgan, Kareem Jackson to NFL
In my opinion, Alualu for Jacksonville and Jackson for Houston were two way over picked players in this past years draft, while Morgan was a good value for Tennessee.

Alualu should be a good fit to play both the defensive tackle in a 4-3 and a defensive end in the 3-4, but based on film that I’ve seen and reports from practice is that Alualu isn’t going to live up to his Top 10 standard, though it is very early. Jackson has played well in practice thus far, but I don’t feel he can be a consistent number one cornerback, which is what the Texans desperately need.

As for Morgan, he’ll have to play and perform without Kyle Vanden Bosch opposite him, who moved on to Detriot this off-season. That defensive front four for the Titans has lots of youth and talent, but Morgan will have to be the feature player to make it a respectable unit.

Top Storylines:
Colts 32nd Run Game in 2009 Trying to Improve
When you play in the Super Bowl at season’s end, usually your team has very few rooms for improvement. However, because Peyton Manning and the passing attack was, as usual, so impressive last season, the run game never got up and running end ended up finishing dead last in the league.

While that worked last season, it’s hard to imagine another deep playoff run for the Colts without an improved running game. With Joseph Addai and Donald Brown, they have the horses. They just both need to stay healthy and the offensive line needs to show improvement as well.

Running Back Battle in Houston Just Got Smaller
To start the season, the Houston Texans had a three-way battle to determine who would be their feature back come the start of the season. One was former rookie stud Steve Slaton who fell off last year. The second was Arian Foster, a bigger back who handled some goal line carries, and rookie Ben Tate from Auburn.

With Ben Tate getting injured for the season in the pre-season, that leaves only a two way battle, which in a sense is only a matter of who starts the game, not stat production. Both players should get close to equal time, with the edge going to Slaton to get a few more carries a game because of his explosiveness.

Chris Johnson Expects 2,500 Yards in 2010
If you’re going to dream, dream big. No one can say the speedy Johnson isn’t dreaming big. After a monstrous 2nd year in the NFL, Johnson eyes an even more impressive rushing total amount: 2,500.

The NFL record for rushing yards in a season is set by Eric Dickerson, who ran for 2,105 yards in 1984, one season after posting an 1,800 yard season. Asking for four hundred more than that is asking alot, but he has the speed to have a 200 yard game a few times, and with the passing attack somewhat lackluster, he’ll likely get 25 carries a game.

Jaguars Changing to a 3-4 Defense
When switching a defense, it either means that your defensive coordinator left, or whatever you were doing before wasn’t working. It’s a little bit of both in Jacksonville, with the defensive coaching staff having every intention of molding this 3-4 defense in the future.

As of now, it’s going to be a “hybrid” defense. With the signing of Aaron Kampman (DE/OLB), the drafting of Tyson Alualu (DT/DE) and Austen Lane (DE/OLB), they obviously have the intention of making it a slow transition. But if they hope to keep up with the dynamic passing offenses (Indy and Houston) and running games (Tennesse) on the schedule twice a year, they need to improve that defense.

Projected Final Standings:
Indianapolis Colts – 12-4
While I strongly feel they only have this year and maybe next year to be secure atop the division and have a Super Bowl presence, Manning’s reign as one favorites for the top prize could be nearing an end. The defense is getting older, the offensive line’s going through a rebuilding phase, and Manning isn’t getting any younger. Still, Manning has had seven straigh 12 win seasons, and I won’t make this year any different.

Houston Texans – 9-7
The Texans are a young team that is on the verge of taking control of the division for the future. They have an exciting offense, and improving defense, and a quarterback-coach combo that can be successful for years. While they have improved as a team and through off-season moves, so have many other AFC contenders, and they’ll struggle for a playoff spot once again.

Tennessee Titans – 7-9
With Chris Johnson in the backfield, it’s hard to count out the Titans in many games this season. He has the ability to bust off huge gains at any point, and he may be able to win 5-6 games single handily. The problem is, with the inconsistent passing game and a defense that is more young than ready, they may not be able to win many games outside of those.

Jacksonville Jaguars – 4-12
Had a better season than I expected a year ago, the Jaguars haven’t gotten much better across the board. I never felt Garrard was a good long-term fix at quarterback, and unless 2009 rookies Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton improve, it could be another long year for him. MJD should face lots of 8-in-the-box defenses, and the Jag’s defense isn’t talented enough to compete in the division.