MLB Baseball Betting Free Picks: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Added on Aug 13, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers (Kuroda) at Atlanta Braves (Hudson)
August 13, 2010–4:35 PM Pacific

The baseball season is winding down and pennant races are heating up. That’s definitely the case in the National League East, where the Philadelphia Phillies have fought back into contention after a lackluster first half and now trail the Atlanta Braves by only two games. Philadelphia will be playing the Mets in New York this weekend, while the Braves will welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to Turner Field.

Braves got some bad news midweek with the revelation that Chipper Jones is likely out for the season, but they’ve got plenty of other weapons. They’ve got the next six games at home and that’s a great opportunity to pick up some more breathing room over the Phillies. Atlanta has been exceptional at Turner Field this year, with a 40-15 record good for +17.4 units of profit. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have struggled away from Chavez Ravine at 23-31 for a loss of -9.6 units. They’ve been a horrible road underdog in this price range (+125 to +150) with a record of 2-9 -6.2 units.

Dodgers’ starter Hiroki Kuroda hasn’t pitched badly this season with a 3.65 ERA but for whatever reasons the team hasn’t done particularly well in his starts. Los Angeles is 12-10 when Kuroda starts including 4-6 on the road. Atlanta’s Tim Hudson has been very solid this year with a 2.24 ERA and the Braves have won 8 of his 11 home starts. He’s been especially sharp in his most recent outings –in his last three starts Hudson is 3-0 allowing only 2 earned runs for a 0.83 ERA with 16 strikeouts in that stretch.

This is an important series for the Braves, and the Dodgers are ripe for the picking given their weakness on the road. Los Angeles is just 9-16 -9 units against teams with winning records in the second half of the season, and with Philadelphia playing very good baseball (8-2 in their last 10) the Braves need to take care of business in this series. Atlanta has a record of 34-26 +6.6 units against teams over .500 this year, and is 13-5 +7 units against winning teams in the second half of the season. Hudson’s team has won 8 of his last 11 starts against the Dodgers and the Braves have taken four of the last six meetings between the two teams at Turner Field. We’ll lay the price with the very strong home team and look for the Braves to take at least two of three if not sweep the weekend set.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Hudson) -150 over Los Angeles Dodgers (Kuroda)