MLB Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati @ Philadelphia

Added on Jul 08, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Sportsbooks will be offering a lot of baseball betting opportunities heading into the All Star Break, and we really like a position in a National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies. The Reds have opened up a three game advantage over St. Louis in the NL Central, while Philadelphia continues to tread water in the middle of the NL East pack six games out of first place.

Cincinnati Reds (Cueto) at Philadelphia Phillies (Kendrick)
July 8, 4:05 PM Pacific

Despite their anemic form during the past month or so the Phillies remain a popular ‘public’ team and that gives us a really nice value in this spot. The Reds continue to cruise right along, winning 7 of their last 10 while Philadelphia continues to spin their wheels losing 7 of their last 10 games. Cincinnati has posted solid profits on the road this year with a 22-18 record good for 5.4 units. Philadelphia’s home record underscores the public’s overvalued perception of the team–they’re 21-17 at home for a -6.2 unit loss.

We’d be all over the Reds at a pick’em price based on the current form of these teams alone but we’re also getting a great pitching matchup. Johnny Cueto has become a solid presence in the Reds’ starting rotation and over the past couple of weeks may be pitching better than anyone in baseball. Cueto has allowed a single earned run in his last three starts, and got the victory when these teams played in Cincinnati on 6/28 with 8 innings of 1 run, 6 hit baseball. He faced Kyle Kendrick in that game as well and the Reds touched him up for 5 ER. Reds have won 11 of Cueto’s 17 starts this season and with both pitcher and team in exceptional form this is a great value at the price.

Bet Cincinnati (Cueto) -110 over Philadelphia (Kendrick)