MLB Betting Free Picks: Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Added on Jul 05, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

After a busy weekend sportsbooks are offering relatively few baseball betting opportunities for Monday, but we’ll take a look at a National League East game between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have recovered from a slow start and are now leading the division, while the Phillies are still bumbling around in the middle of the pack.

Atlanta Braves (Lowe) at Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)
July 5, 4:05 PM Pacific

Philadelphia has shown a few signs of making a run at the division leaders, but they can’t quite seem to turn the corner and become competitive. They’ll enter this contest having lost 6 of their last 10 games and are 5 games back of the first place Braves. Atlanta has been fairly consistent of late, but they’re still a much better team at home (30-10) than on the road (18-24). The Phillies, however, are usually overpriced at home–their record is 20-15 but that’s cost backers -4.8 units.

Roy Halladay gets the start for Philadelphia here, and while he’s put up excellent numbers all season (2.42 ERA) the Phillies are only 9-8 in his starts for a loss of -5.4 units. They’re 4-4 in his home assignments for a loss of -4.7 units. Derek Lowe has had his ups and downs this year, but Atlanta has won 10 of his 17 starts and are 4-4 in his road starts netting a small profit in both situations. Overall, the head to head series has been very even with the Braves winning 5 of 9 games this year. They’ve won 10 of the last 21 in Philly, good for a +3.5 unit profit. Since we’re getting such an attractive price with the road team we’ll back Atlanta which has been playing better, more consistent baseball all season long.

Bet Atlanta (Lowe) +155 over Philadelphia (Halladay)