MLB Betting Free Picks: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
Added on Jun 24, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Baseball betting resumes at sportsbooks today with more Interleague action. We’ll take a look at a game between the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays. Padres are currently leading the NL West, while Tampa Bay has slumped a bit from their torrid start and has sunk to second in the AL East and are 2.5 games back of the New York Yankees.
San Diego (LeBlanc) at Tampa Bay (Garza)
June 24, 9:10 AM Pacific
The Padres haven’t received any respect from the casual fans all season, and that’s reflected in their betting lines. Not only are they an underdog in this game, but a sizable +165 underdog. But why? Let’s look at recent form–the Padres have won 6 of 10, Tampa has lost 7 of their last 10. Tampa has lost 6 of their last 7, Padres have won 5 of 7. How about home/away tendencies? San Diego is 19-13 +11.2 units on the road, Tampa Bay has a winning record at 18-17 at home–but here’s the best evidence that they’re typically an overvalued side: they’ve lost bettors -11.6 units at home.
So it must be the pitching matchup. True, Tampa Bay has performed well against left handers this year (18-8 +7 units). The relative form of the starting pitchers in today’s matchup goes a long way to negate that edge. Wade LeBlanc checks in with a 2.88 ERA and the Padres have won 8 of his 12 starts YTD including 3 of 4 on the road. He’s allowed only 2 ER in his last three starts–all Padre wins. Matt Garza has a 4.86 ERA for the year, and has allowed 15 ER in his last three starts. Classic case of a ‘false favorite’ and we’re getting a great price on the better team in better form.
Bet San Diego (LeBlanc) +165 over Tampa Bay (Garza)
