MLB Betting Free Picks: Atlanta @ Florida

Added on May 26, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Plenty of baseball betting action on the board at sportsbooks tonight, and we’ll take a look at a National League matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Florida Marlins. The Braves and Marlins are neck and neck for second place in the NL East, with Florida currently holding a half game advantage.

Atlanta Braves (Tommy Hanson) at Florida Marlins (Nate Robertson)
May 26, 4:10 PM Pacific

We have to admit that the price on this game–with Atlanta a -145 to -150 favorite–has us scratching our collective heads. The only justification is that the Braves’ Tommy Hanson has performed exceptionally on the road this year, allowing 5 earned runs in four starts away from Turner Field. Hanson is a real nice young talent and has exceptional poise and pitch command for being only 23 years old, but let’s put his road performance into context. Overall, he’s got an ERA of 4.14 and the Braves have lost 4 of his 8 starts. He’s allowed 13 earned runs in his last two starts, and didn’t make it out of the 2nd inning in his last outing. Also worth noting that he’s faced nothing but light hitting teams on the road (Washington, San Diego, Milwaukee and the NY Mets before they started to play well). The Marlins start journeyman Nate Robertson here, and while his numbers aren’t anything impressive they’re not embarrassing either.

Once you get past the pitching matchup–which in our view is essentially a toss up–its advantage Marlins. The Braves are 13-6 at Turner Field, but 10-16 -6.9 units away from home. Florida is right around breakeven at home in terms of profit and loss, but they do have a winning record at 13-10. Florida was 10-8 +5.2 units against Atlanta last season, and until the Braves improve their road form they’re a ‘go against’ outside of Turner Field. Even with Hanson’s solid play on the road this year, its always scary investing in a pitcher off of a shelling like he received against the Reds. We’ll back the Marlins here at a nice underdog price.

Bet Florida (Robertson) +135 over Atlanta (Hanson)