MLB Betting Free Picks: Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Added on May 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Busy weekend at sportsbooks, with the NBA and NHL playoffs and–in much of the world at least–the Champions League soccer final taking center stage. Additionally, there’s plenty of interleague baseball betting action and that’s what we’ll focus on today. The Cincinnati Reds are facing their in-state rivals as they play the Indians at Cleveland, and it looks to be one of the better values on the board.

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
May 22, 4:05 PM Pacific

Reds won the first game of the series easily on Friday, and this play falls under the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ school of handicapping. The Reds are running neck and neck with St. Louis for first place in the NL Central, while Cleveland is in last place in the AL Central 9 games out. The Indians have been awful at home this year, posting a 6-11 record while the Reds have a 10-9 road mark good for +2.4 units. Despite the qualitative differences in the two teams 2010 performance, this game is priced as a ‘pick’em’. The reason for this is a classic case of public perception–the Reds have been a dysfunctional team in recent years, while the Indians have had a good deal of success. This game is priced to reflect casual bettors’ perceptions of the two teams based on what happened in previous years–not what is happening now.

Fausto Carmona gets the start for Cleveland, and he’s pitched reasonably well this year. The Indians have lost 3 of his 4 home starts, however, and he’s got a 4.44 ERA in those outings. Johnny Cueto isn’t exactly a household name among the average fan yet, but he’s a solid pitcher who is rounding into form nicely. The Reds have won 5 of his eight starts this season, including the last three in which Cueto has allowed a total of 4 earned runs. The Reds have brutalized the Indians in head to head play, winning 10 of the last 13 including 5 of 7 at Cleveland. We’re getting a much better team at a pick’em price.

Bet Cincinnati (Cueto) -110 over Cleveland (Carmona)