NHL Betting Free Picks: Edmonton @ Columbus
Added on Mar 15, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Only 3 NHL betting opportunities on the board at online betting sites for Monday, but we’ll take a position in a battle between Eastern Conference bottom feeders as the Columbus Blue Jackets host the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers might not quite be bad enough to call a NHL equivalent to the NBA New Jersey Nets, but they’re close. They’ve in the Western Conference basement with just 49 points, the lowest in the NHL. They’re 9 points back of Toronto, the last place team in the Eastern Conference who have the second worst record in hockey. Columbus is just ahead of Edmonton in the West, but they lead the Oilers by a whopping 16 points!
Edmonton Oilers at Columbus Blue Jackets
March 15, 4:05 PM Pacific
Game is off the board at some books due to the status of Blue Jackets’ center Rick Nash, listed as doubtful with the flu. It should be up everywhere by mid-morning. Steve Mason will get the start in goal for Columbus, and he’s having one of the worst ‘sophomore slumps’ imaginable. Last year, Mason won the Calder Trophy for ‘rookie of the year’ with a 33-20 record and a 2.29 goals against average. This year he’s 16-22 with a 3.17 goals against average. He’s gone from having the #2 goals against average in the league last year to #41 this year. Mason is only 21, so we’re thinking he’ll be fine longterm but he’s been pretty bad this year. Not that he’s been getting a lot of help–last season Columbus ranked #3 in the NHL for allowing the fewest opponent shots on goal per game and have dropped to #16 in that department this year. Mason has lost five straight starts allowing an average of 4.2 goals per game. In all fairness, that run has been against some stiff competition–all five games were against playoff bound teams with the exception of one, and that was against a St. Louis team just 5 points out of a spot. In that stretch he faced Vancouver twice and San Jose once.
His opponent in net here, Jeff Deslauriers hasn’t been great either though he is something of an enigma. Overall, Deslauriers has lost 7 of his last 10 starts. In his 7 losses, he’s allowed an average of 4.71 goals per game. But he’s also shown flashes of brilliance–in his three wins in this timeframe he’s allowed 3 goals with a shutout. Going back a little further, Deslauriers has won 5 of his L20 starts and in *those* 5 wins he’s allowed a total 5 goals with two shutouts. He’s fundamentally a decent goalie with the potential to be very good, but his biggest liability right now is that he looks up the ice every night and realizes that the guys in the Edmonton Oilers jerseys are his teammates. Edmonton ranks #26 in shots on goal allowed, meaning that on an average night at the office Deslauriers faces 32.5 shots on goal.
Neither goalie gets much help from his offense. Columbus is ranked #25 in scoring offense (2.55 goals per) while Edmonton is #29 (2.43 per). Giving up a lot of shots and goals and not scoring many obviously isn’t going to get you far in the NHL. Head to head, Columbus has won two of the three meetings this season though Edmonton was competitive in the lone matchup in this building losing 3-2. Halfway tempted to play the Oilers here, but Columbus is decent on their home ice with a 16-11-7 mark and have won 8 of their L12 against teams with losing records. We may take some shots with Edmonton down the stretch, but we want more than a +140 payback.
Instead, we’ll take a position on this game to go Over the total. Currently, the only posted total is 5 OV -130, but if we can get 5′ UN and a plus moneyline all the better. Two of the three head to head this season have gone Over the total with an average of 7 goals per game. The last 9 head to head matchups have seen 6.41 goals per game scored. Since returning from the Olympic break, Columbus has gone Over in 4 of their 6 games while Edmonton has gone Over in 4 of 7. 7 of the L11 head to head and 3 of the L5 in C-Bus have gone Over. For the season, Edmonton is 13-10 to the Over when playing a team with a losing record, and in the second half of the season they’re Over in 8 of 10 against sub .500 teams. They’re also 1-9 SU against teams with losing records. This will either end up a shootout with both goalies allowing enough to push the game Over, or else the Jackets will take out some frustrations and could go Over this number on their own even without Nash. Whether this game ends up being posted at 5 or 5′ we like it Over.
Bet Edmonton/Columbus Over 5 -130
