NHL Betting Free Picks: Phoenix @ Atlanta
Added on Mar 14, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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Sportsbooks offering a big NHL betting card for Saturday and we’ll look for a value position in the interconference game between the Phoenix Coyotes and Atlanta Thrashers. These two teams have been headed in different directions lately, with Atlanta struggling and Phoenix continuing to play well. The Thrashers have lost five straight and 7 of their L10. Coyotes, meanwhile, have won four straight and 6 of 10 and are tied with Vancouver for third place in the Western Conference.
Phoenix Coyotes at Atlanta Thrashers
March 14, 2:05 Pacific
Atlanta is still in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference just 6 games out of eighth place, but they haven’t shown any signs of making a move. Their biggest problem lately has been scoring–after ranking among the league leaders in scoring offense all year they’ve had trouble ‘putting the biscuit in the basket’ in recent games. Just a week or so ago they were in the top 2 or 3 teams in the league scoring 3+ goals per game. Now they’ve plummeted all the way to an 8th place tie and their goal per game output has dropped to 2.9 per contest. Their recent form is even worse–they’ve scored just 6 goals in their last 5 games for a paltry 1.2 goals per game average in that span. They’ve faced some good defenses in that stretch, but none as solid as the Coyotes who are currently tied with Chicago and Calgary for the #2 scoring defense in the NHL with a 2.40 goals against average. That’s just fractionally worse than top ranked Boston at 2.39 goals against per game. Goaltender Ilja Bryzgalov has been solid all year but has been very sharp in recent games, allowing just 4 goals in four games. He’s had two shutouts in that stretch and 3 of the 4 goals came against high scoring Vancouver.
Compounding Atlanta’s scoring woes is their defensive liabilities. The Thrashers are ranked #28 of 30 teams in scoring defense, leading only Edmonton and Toronto–the two worst teams in the NHL for sports betting. The irony is that Atlanta’s defense has played reasonably well at times during their losing streak, but when they’ve stepped up the offense hasn’t. The Thrashers held Nashville and Columbus to just 2 goals apiece but only scored 1 in both games. All told during their 5 game losing streak they’ve allowed 19 goals for a 3.8 goals against average–worse than their already weak 3.18 for the year.
The Thrashers have been a solid Over play for us all year, while the Coyotes have been money in the bank as an ‘Under’ position and particularly on the road. Phoenix has gone Over in only 8 of 31 road games, and many of those had 5 totals posted. With a total of 5′+, they’re Under in 17 of 22 spots. The Thrashers’ leaky defense makes a ‘backdoor Over’ a risk, such as occurred against the New York Rangers in their last game (a 5-1 New York win). Still, with Phoenix’s defense and YTD form combined with Atlanta’s scoring drought that’s the way to play it. We’ll also back the Coyotes as small priced road favorites. Atlanta has lost 7 of their L8 against teams with winning records and Phoenix is a *very* good team.
Bet Phoenix -130 over Atlanta
Bet Phoenix/Atlanta Under 5′ -110
